The export surge program has meant high volumes of soybean operations in Argentina’s domestic market, a record of overseas sales affidavits, an acceleration of the entry of soybean unloading trucks into the country’s port terminals, and a significant strengthening of the national state coffers through export rights. One by one, this analysis aims to investigate these points.
With operations of 13.3 million tons, the business recorded in September more than tripled the historical monthly average of 4.4 Mt and is 315% higher than the previous month. This volume also exceeds by 47% the previous record of 9.4 Mt reached in May 2019, the report of the Rosary Exchange indicated.
This local volume is made up of over 10 million tonnes registered as new sales contracts, plus another 3.7 million tonnes of previously concluded contract settlements, both segments at historic highs.
During the validity of the Export Increase Program, foreign sales of beans, flours and soy by-products (DJVE) were recorded for a total of 13 million tons, the highest volume for at least a month since 2010. Although the registers do not allow to go further, there would hardly have been more sales for just one month earlier, as production was significantly lower before that date.
In comparative terms, this volume is 30% higher than the previous maximum of 10 Mt recorded in April 2016, when in full grain harvest in Argentina the excess rain unexpectedly cut between 5% and 7% of the national production. . The presence of rotten and sprouted grains has begun to generalize, with a particular impact in the province of Santa Fe, triggering international prices of complex soybeans.
The rest of the podium is completed by the volume of foreign sales declarations for April 2014 with 8.3 million tons, when the pressure of Chinese demand for soybeans leaves the level of stocks in relation to the consumption in the United States at an all-time low of. 5%, when the average of the previous 10 years was 13%. US stocks restricted to meet demand exacerbated international dependence on South American supply of soybeans and by-products, impacting their premiums.
In fourth place is the record of 8.1 Mt of June 2015 when the United States was preparing to plant soy for the new cycle and the excess humidity led to a severe delay in the works due to lack of land. Faced with this, futures purchases by investment funds have soared, as have prices.
Finally, to close the top-5, in August 2019 there were 8 Mt of foreign sales of the soybean complex, coinciding with the intensification of tensions in the Trade War between China and the United States, which led the Asian giant to seek alternative suppliers in South America. The widening of the spread of the FOB premiums of Argentina and Brazil compared to that of the USA helped to explain the registration, in a context in which the volatility of the local markets was exacerbated by the result of the Primary, Open, Simultaneous and Compulsory Elections (PASO ), which indicated a change in the subject responsible for the national government and, therefore, for agricultural trade policy.
In the ranking of the 10 companies with the highest Sworn Declarations of Sale Abroad (DJVE) of the soybean complex in September 2022, the activities of Viterra (2.7 million tons), Cargill (1.8 million tons) and AGD (1.6 million tons) stand out.. Therefore, a company with Argentine capital is listed in the top 3. And it is interesting to note that this ranking is much more similar to the ranking of foreign sales of products derived from the industrialization of soybeans than to that of soybeans. This is due to the fact that demand is concentrated in factories capable of originating and securing the external placement of soybean oil and meal throughout the year among a wider range of customers, which would be much more difficult for soybean seeds. soy.
Based on the DJVE of complex soy products corresponding to the current 2021/22 campaign and the official FOB prices of soy, oil and flour / pellets of the last month, the value of external sales declared abroad between 5/9 and 9 / 30 amounts to US $ 6,706 million, andl Contribution in terms of export rights to the national state of $ 2,213 million, taking into account that the export duty rate of the three products mentioned is 33% of the FOB value. This equates to 442.607 million taking the special equivalent of $ 200 per dollar.
Source: Clarin
