Diego Pereira, JPMorgan’s chief economist for the Southern Cone, has predicted inflation in Argentina above 100% by 2023. “In our baseline scenario, inflation will close close to 100% this year and hit 112%. next year. “, he assured.
Pereira’s forecasts are contrary to the projection of the Ministry of Economy, led by Sergio Massa, who in the 2023 Budget – which he presented to Congress last week – indicates inflation of 60%. for the next year a growth of 2% and a deficit of 1.9%.
In a dialogue with Bloomberg Línea, the economist of the US financial giant highlighted the positive points that the Minister of Economy Sergio Massa has developed since his arrival, but also clarified that a “Stabilization plan” due to the strong inflationary inertia that is going through the country.
“The leadership shown by Massa as minister and political articulator is important”the analyst noted with Bloomberg Line.
Pereira also stressed that the recession by 2023 will be inevitable also produced by the Central Bank rate hike which seeks to contain the exchange rate gap and at the same time seeks to encourage savings in pesos at the cost of declining growth.
“In terms of activity, we expect 4.1% more this year, but next year we see a more likely 0.6% contraction in GDP,” he said.
Inflation in September
Private sector measurements from the last week of September indicate that last month’s inflation hit the 7% cap. Thus, the advisors again raise the forecast, which weeks ago was even closer to 6%.
The INDEC recorded inflation of 7.4% in July and 7% in August. For September it was initially expected to be below 6.5%, but with the end of the month everything got worse.
Consultancy firms EcoGo, C&T, Libertad y Progreso and LCG see September inflation ranging between 6.7% and 6.9%. And they anticipate that there will be no improvements in the October registry.
The EcoGo advisory measurement records an increase in foods in September of approximately 7.3% per month. This leads them to project headline inflation of 6.7%.
From C&T they bring the index to 6.8%, one tenth above the August record, which was 6.7%. Over the past twelve months, prices have increased by 82.8%, the highest change since December 1991.
C&T reports a 13% increase in apparel due to the change of season. “In the various goods and services, the 12% increase in cigarettes stands out, although significant increases are also recorded for toiletries”, they underline.
Furthermore, Housing was affected by the increase in gas and electricity deriving from the elimination of contributions for the various users.
Food and beverages, the most relevant item, increased by 7% for C&T. The largest increases occurred in oils, vegetables and soft drinks. “Meat accelerated significantly in the second half of the month,” they note.
The measure of Libertad y Progreso gives inflation of 6.9% for Septemberwhich would be the third largest increase in the entire Alberto Fernández administration.
In this way, in the first 9 months of 2022, accumulated inflation reaches 67.2%.
Other increases for October
In October6% appears as a minimum threshold, with the possibility of approaching 7% again. Among the main increases of the month is the recent 6% increase in fuel, which will add to the increases expected for the various services. There will be a 10% increase in the water tariff, a 19% increase in Internet and mobile phone tariffs and an 11.5% jump in the prepaid tariff.
There will also be a 20% increase in tuition fees for private schools in the city of Buenos Aires and 6.2% in the province of Buenos Aires.
In addition, there will be a reorganization of expenses due to one of the seven installments of the extraordinary bonus of $ 134,000 for the supervisors.
YN
Source: Clarin
