A severe drought is affecting much of the main agricultural region and raises alarms in the government because it already affects the production of wheat and the sowing of prime quality corn and triggers alarms in the government for the lower foreign exchange income than expected.
Throughout the central region, the months of June, July, August and September practically no rain. What is added is the third consecutive year with rainfall below the historical average. The last time was in the years 1973-1976 and 1998-2001. And the forecasts for the rest of October, November and December are not encouraging.
September closed with many locations – record-breaking or almost – of lack of rain, according to the latest data from the Rosary Exchange. On average, the central region received 13mm when it should have received a statistical average of nearly 50mm, or nearly a quarter of which it rained. We have to go back to 1969 to find a smaller record in September.
According to the Buenos Aires Cereal Exchange, the sowing and production of the 6 main crops in Argentina (soy, corn, wheat, sunflower, barley and sorghum) would fall into this cycle. In total, an area of 34.5 million hectares is expected, 1% less, and the harvest would reach 127.7 million tons, a drop of 1.6%.
The biggest setback would be in the grain, which is going through key stages in its performance, which will impact productivity. 17.5 million tons are already estimated, 15% less than expected at the start of sowing. But the estimates could continue to drop if there is no rain in the coming days.
According to the authority, 46.3% of the area has a regular / bad harvest condition and 89.3% of this percentage is distributed between the center and the north of the agricultural area.
The area most affected by the lack of rain is the north of Buenos Aires. “There are places where it hasn’t rained for 150 days. No significant rains have fallen since May 25,” he warned. Matia ErmacoraCoordinator of Agriculture of Crea in the north of Buenos Aires.
In this sense, he stressed that the losses are very serious. “This has never been seen.n lots we invest to reach from 5,000 to 6,000 kilos and today they will give 1,500 kilos. The severe frosts have also affected the wheat, “she said.
To which he limited that no first-class maize is planted. “There is no moisture and it cannot be sown. Most will bet on late corn,” she said. “The producer has changed his mood, he’s angry and worried, he’s on the defensive,” she added.
By the way, the Borsa del Rosario indicated it only 100,000 hectares have been planted and it is the most delayed planting in a decade. In any case, producers are expected to switch to late sowing (December) so that a sharp decline in corn acreage is not expected at the moment.
The strongest crop will be soybeans, that 16.7 million hectares are expected, 3% more than in the previous cycle, given the greater resistance to the lack of water and the lower investment required.
With this production scenario, exports will be affected which, according to the same entity, will drop to 40.932 million dollars, 9.2% compared to the previous campaign, which will have a significant impact on the government accounts for 2023.
In recent times, there has been a decline in the value of cereals, mainly soy. Oilseed was trading at US $ 540 on the Chicago market on September 6, and on Thursday it just passed US $ 500, down more than 7% in one month, far from the US $ 650 this year. a new record, being the lowest in the past two and a half months.
“It is due to the pressure caused by the advancement of the North American harvest which had been delayed by time,” explained Agustina Peña, analyst of the Rosario Exchange, among one of the many factors of the decline.
Source: Clarin
