The government plans to spend $ 2.8 trillion in energy subsidies ($ 13 billion) during the next year. This represents a 53% increase in pesos compared to what was budgeted for this yearor. To achieve this, several analysts estimate that it will have to make a rate correction in 2023, in addition to the one it is making now. The same should be on average 80% (in the medium sectors) in order to respect the low fiscal deficit and the ballot papers cover half of the energy costs, which is what the Executive Power promised.
The secretary of energy had to rush a month to remove subsidies for public services. The trial that was to begin in September has been postponed to October. In this way, instead of ending in February 2023 – as planned -, the end of this first phase of removing the subsidies will be in March 2023.
In April, the process will have to restart. In the Executive there are already those who doubt whether it is convenient to face a correction in a election year. Others argue that the Minister of Economy, Sergio Massa, has engaged with international organizations to lower the fiscal deficit and so on He will do it at all costs.
The Government has established that the tariff adjustments respond to a logic: the lowest income sectors will pay, in 2023, a change equal to 40% of the Salary Variation Coefficient (CVS) of the previous year, that is to say of this 2022. With respect to customers identified as “average income”, this correction will be equal to 80% of the CVS.
The call level 1 (high income) in March 2023 it will run out of subsidies. And from there he would pay a “full” rate, that is, without state subsidies.
The inflation estimate for this year already exceeds three figures (101.5%, according to the Central Bank’s survey of expectations). The change in wages – which is reflected in the CVS – has yet to be determined, but is expected to be slightly less than accumulated inflation.
In Energy they always clarify that the current levels of segmentation correspond to this year, taking as an end until March 2023 in terms of tariffs. In the next there may be a review of the current parameters. In any case, the addiction led by Flavia Royón is still complicated with the removal of subsidies this season to plan what will happen next.
In this scenario, the highest income customers (currently family groups earning $ 420,000 per monthowning three properties, three cars or wanting to keep access to “dollar savings”) would have increases greater than inflation.
The government plans to reduce energy subsidies in the course of 2023. In the budget bill for 2023, the Economy has estimated that theSubsidies on electricity and gas bills will represent 1.6% of GDP. To achieve this, it must get families to pay half the cost of electricity through their bills. The “coverage” (of costs) through ballot papers should be 49%, according to the official project.
The Secretary of Energy, Flavia Royón, assured – to Congress, when she went to explain the Energy items in the budget – that A global tariff review (RTI) will be carried out in 2023, which will last for 5 years. In the industry, there are doubts that the ruling party can undertake such a task.
Although the government has not given the numbers, the articles would have dropped from more than $ 13.5 billion – expected for this year – to a range of between $ 11 billion and $ 13 billion in 2023.
According to an ASAP study, Energy will take $ 2.8 billion from the budget, 50% more than this year. This figure not only includes current grants, but also works, such as the construction of the gas pipeline connecting Vaca Muerta with Buenos Aires.
Cammesa, the electrical utility wholesaler, will be the dependency that will suffer the biggest drop in state money. It will go from $ 9,000 million this year to $ 6,500 million in 2023, according to the consulting firm Economy and Energy, led by Nicolás Arceo. In an analysis of the budget law made by ASAP, it is estimated that this company could receive about 7.4 billion dollars.
In Buenos Aires, the percentage of costs covered by tickets is lower. The fare delay is more pronounced than inside.
Distributors in Buenos Aires charge one of the cheapest prices for electricity, measured in dollars, in the world. The Argentine capital is one of the five cheapest for electricity consumption in a survey that includes nearly 80 countries.
The government allocated $ 12,000 million in energy subsidies in 2021, which represented around 2.5% of GDP. This year, rising international energy prices forced Argentina to pay more for the gas it imports during the winter. In addition, record imports of fuel oil and diesel fuel had to be made. The country is on track to consume $ 13,500 to subsidize tariffs, according to Economy and Energy.
That number would drop in 2023, according to the budget’s interpretation. Grants would range from $ 11 billion to $ 13 billion.
Source: Clarin
