Fuel prices have risen 52% so far this year. And the pumps will continue to have comments during this last quarter. “There may be movements between now and the end of the year. We are in an inflationary context “, justified the Secretary of Energy, Flavia Royonin radio statements.
Despite the lack of data on inflation for September, the change in the cost of living accumulated so far does not fall below 62%. “Fuels are lagging behind inflation”the official said.
Oil companies have applied a 6% increase at the beginning of the month. They justified this by updating the taxes they pay and a higher price for the biodiesel they have to buy. There has also been an improvement in their margins.
Although no one dares to give numbers on what will happen in the coming months, the comment among the refiners is that there will be two increases and that none will be less than 6%.
“Fuel prices are deregulated. Even, dialogues with operators so that they do not have a price escalation, nor international values ”, as told by Royón to the” Toma y Daca “program (AM 750)
YPF’s super naphtha retails for $ 138 in Buenos Aires, the cheapest place in the country outside of Patagonia. Premium fuel costs around $ 170, always in the stations of the majority state oil company. The estimate among gas station owners is that the year will end above $ 200.
The values of the other oil companies (the Shell and Axion brands) exceed those of YPF, and also rise in the interior, with differences of up to 20% compared to Buenos Aires.
“Local prices are much cheaper than in neighboring countries. It has been seen with the shortage (of diesel), ”Royón pointed out in relation to the purchases of fuel from cars with foreign plates in Argentine stations that met in the winter.
Super naphtha cannot be shipped at one dollar at the official exchange rate and less than 50 cents if it is used by dollars in stock exchange transactions. For the past 30 years, the liter of gasoline has been close to the dollar most of the time. In Brazil it is sold under the dollar, as in Colombia. In the rest of South America, filling the tank is more expensive than in Argentina.
“There is still a need to import fuel,” Royón said, explaining that oil companies usually look for a price that reflects “import parity”. It is the amount that is paid for the purchase of foreign oil. It is what companies usually observe to measure their results.
There is also an idea circulating in the industry advance in larger increments (close to 9%) and then implement a lockdown in 2023. It is a tool that the government has already used in the 2021 legislative elections. Between May 2021 and February 2022 there were no price increases. It was one of the ways chosen by the ruling party to try to improve its chances in the legislative elections, in which it came second. In Brazil, President Jair Bolsonaro took advantage of falling fuel prices to record it as a credit for managing him.
The alleged official idea of approving the increases for 2022 and stopping them for 2023 is also commented on in other sectors of mass consumption. Economy Minister Sergio Massa made no allusions in this regard during his passage to Congress. There he went to explain the Budget Law 2023, where inflation is forecasted to be 60%, well below the 100% increase in the cost of living estimated by analysts for this year, reflected in the survey of expectations which lightens the Central Bank. This distance between the official target and the one observed by the market generates the suspicion of some “surprise” measure, on which speculation is underway.
The barrel of crude oil rose after the Russian invasion of Ukraine, when it exceeded $ 100, but then fell to an area of $ 80 in late September. In response, the main producing countries (gathered in OPEC +) have decided to limit production, with the aim of reaching a price of 100 US dollars again, which is happening.
In the course of 2022, Argentina had to resort to the importance of fuel oil (which is used in electricity generation). It was purchased by Cammesa, the wholesale administrator of the electrical plant, which this year applied for subsidies of $ 9,000 million.
Source: Clarin
