The situation of the People’s Republic when the 20th Congress of the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) is held in October is as follows:
* –GDP has doubled over the past 10 years, and now totals $ 16.9 trillion (it was $ 8.5 trillion in 2012); and it is the second largest economy in the world behind the United States ($ 26.6 trillion / 25% of global GDP).
* –It is also the world’s leading cereal producer (650 million average tons in the last decade), driving the manufacturing exports of the global system (2.6 billion dollars in 2022).
* –It is also the first trading power (exports + imports) with a commodity trade of $ 4.6 billion in 2021, rising to $ 6.9 billion this year. This is why it is the main trading partner of 140 countries in the world of the 192 represented at the United Nations.
* –They represent 35% / 40% of the global economic boom in the past 15 years; and has a total of $ 3.7 trillion in reserves, the first in the international system.
*-In the end, created an average of 13 million jobs per year between 2012 and 2022with an inflation rate of 3.5% per annum.
In the global conflict with the United States, Washington has the initiative; and the balance of power means that China is forced to take a defensive position.
The central point of the US offensive is the decision of Joe Biden and the Washington Congress to do so wage an economic war to prevail in the race for technological hegemony of the Fourth Industrial Revolution (CRI), through the domain of the critical inputs of digitization which are the “semiconductors” or “chips”.
This it does the next 5/10 years are decisive in the history of the 21st century, since in them the global power of the time is contested.
The next step for the United States, if this first attempt fails, would be change the political regime of the People’s Republicwhose core is the rule of the CCP, which would amount to an unequivocal “casus belli” for China, the other superpower of the time.
America’s main vulnerability is that everything in this conflict depends on the internal development of the People’s Republicfocused on its full technological autonomy, and its conversion into an innovative and entrepreneurial power capable of competing on par with the United States in 2035.
Therefore the distinction between advanced and developing economies would disappear of the People’s Republic, and would have substantially completed the CRI, through the domain of Artificial Intelligence, the Internet of Things and robotization.
It means that in the next 15 years its population of 1,400 million would have a per capita income of US $ 25,000 per yearwith a GDP that would reach a level of 32 billion dollars.
This historic feat would take place with a strategy of “Shared Prosperity”.aimed at qualitatively broadening the material and spiritual possibilities of all its inhabitants and social sectors without exception.
In competing with the United States, it should be noted that 21st century high technology is by nature cooperative, global and public, which necessarily excludes any protectionist vision, turned internally, and of exclusively geopolitical roots. There is no self-sufficiency possible in the conditions of the 21st century: the last attempt ended irreversibly in 1991.
The US breakout policy allows China to show its main comparative advantage, which is to be the country most integrated into 21st century capitalism.
The problem for both the United States and the People’s Republic is the content of realitythe structural core of the present.
There are three trends at play: First, the axis of world power it has definitively gone from the G-7 to China / Asia, from 1.2 billion to 6.4 billion inhabitants; and this happened when, secondly, the technical revolution created a absolutely unified global society which is governed by instantaneity.
This is accompanied, thirdly, by a sensational affirmation of cultural and national identity of the peoples of the world, who viscerally reject any attempt to homogenize ideologies and policies.
That is why the United States will at some point be forced to negotiate with China, despite its relative superiority, a long-term strategic agreementwhich will happen as its serious political crisis deepens within the next 5/10 years, the deepest since the Civil War of 1861/1865.
This negotiation is favored by the fact that while China deploys all the power of the Fourth Industrial Revolution, it is deepening its integration and opening up to world capitalism.
This agreement is also facilitated by the proof that the People’s Republic does not aspire to take the place of the United States.because it assumes that “… the world cannot be dominated, because it is a continuous flow of events and trends that are beyond the control of everyone, even the most powerful states” (Mao Tse Tung).
The story of 5,000 years of China indicates many failures and defeats, but also some victories; and perhaps this is – the US-imposed challenge to world power – one of them.
Without a doubt, the next 5/10 years will be decisive in the history of the world.
Source: Clarin
