There is nothing new, or almost, in saying that Sergio Massa is a boy ambitiousfrom let’s say flexible political codes and bet heavily. Nor is it then that, perched on the Ministry of Economy, he would have set his sights on 2023 thinking of not being imprisoned by a collapse of Kirchnerism or, perhaps, thinking of something more productive than that.
In any case, it is not easy for him with a couple of questions that, among many, hinder the achievement of the goal he has set. One takes the form of a dangerous and unstable silver mountain that grows without limits and the other is obviously the same. uncontrolled inflationary spiral.
Both appear in the main menu of what is called in the world of politics The plan comes mass. Or what is there, made in a hurry and populated with patches, in the absence of a real economic program.
Not everything has been said about price escalation, but enough for you to wait your turn.
There is talk of a circuit where you play a lot of money, in the first round there is a problem that speaks of Payment capacity of the state and, more precisely, the Government’s reduced payment capacity. And it’s not about dollar debt, it’s about trillions of pesos expiring ahead of the electionswhich arouse uncertainty and fuel defensive positions.
The numbers hammer on the precariousness of a model that has been put together in fits and starts and that, not even there, serves to support a tax structure full of holes and in permanent red.
More than that solvency always on the verge of insolvency, the accounts managed by some consultants reveal that in the course of 2023, when the final electoral time has already entered, about 8.3 trillion pesos expire, at a rate of 500,000, 600,000 and up to one billion per month. Translated into the official dollar, approximately $ 53.5 billion or, if you prefer, almost equal to the loan that Mauricio Macri took out with the IMF.
Everything goes from impressive to very impressive, so 80-90% of that debt is indexed by inflation, the official dollar, or a mix of both called a dual bonus and created as soon as Massa took over. The combo notes that by the expiration of the 2023 package, the debt will have doubled or nearly doubled.
It is sung that together or dissolved such a set of variables provides a dense dance, before or well before the PASO in August, in case there was a PASO. It accompanies a worn-out government, always involved in internal disputes e a troupe of extended free thinkers.
Something similar to such a scenario is raised by a former Economy official who has spent years touring the world of big players, here and abroad, questioned about the risk of financial meltdown.
He says, “Anything can be fine or go to hell. It depends on trust, which is a rare commodity, and there is still a long way to go before the elections. The Government assures that there will be a compulsive reprofiling Debt. But do you believe him?
He says that when choosing where to deposit deposits, banks and investment funds prefer Leliq or Central Bank passes instead of National Treasury bonds. Of course, Leliq’s shares are not even a hymn to peace, in a country like Argentina: they show an accumulated debt of $ 7.3 billion that produces 75% nominal or 105% of annual liquidity.
According to the estimates made from memory by the former official, placements in BCRAs represent about 50% of the deposits of financial institutions against no more than 10% that goes to the Treasury. “Obviously for some reason. they feel more comfortable with the Central or give them more confidence ”.
Other market sources admit that “there is a danger of tremors”. “But it is not extremely big nor is it enough for a long-term restructuring of the pesos debt,” transcartón say as someone trying not to add fuel to the fire.
Put in to describe how many are in Together for Change, the former official provides a scenario of divided positions. On one side, Patricia Bullrich, supporter of a shock entrance and quickly remove the exchange siphon and, on the other hand, a Horacio Rodríguez Larreta walking in a more gradualist and less risky plan. “The New York operators, he adds, think the same way as Bullrich.”
And what would he do if he were in charge of decisions? He says he will act soon, to avoid interference and contain the tendency to worsen implicit in the inherited condition.
Returning to the Arriva de Massa Plan, there was a decision these days that sounded strange and sudden: it was to authorize in one fell swoop a 200% increase for the Edenor and Edesur fares after having frozen them for more than two years. And after Cristina Kirchner herself supported two rebel field technicians, who had implanted themselves in the much more moderate 20% during a noisy battle against Martín Guzmán.
A detail that smells of information: in 2020, with the Kirchnerism recently landed at the Casa Rosada, Edenor was acquired by José Luis Manzano and Daniel Vila, two agile entrepreneurs for businesses who are among the closest to the current Minister of Economy.
And another of the same kind: thanks to an article of the Budget Law, both Edenor and Edesur will enjoy, together with the provincial distributors, a generous moratorium for the payment of the debts accumulated with Cammesa, the parastate company that manages the energy market.
That is to say, 96 monthly installments with six grace periods plus the benefit of a hefty rate adjustment that would take no more than three months to reach the companies’ balance sheets. It’s a pretty similar combination to charging now and, with that user money, paying the state for premiums.
Closure of the case: the distributors’ debt amounts to 500,000 million dollars and that of Edenor and Edesur half.
It seems clear that this political cost of the move called inflation will be borne by the Government and it is unthinkable, on the other hand, that the Government would have been kind enough to pave the way for the opposition, indeed quite the opposite of what is intertwined in the offices of the ‘Instituto Patria. Free interpretation or free suspicion, therefore.
In any case, even if it falls into the pockets of the middle sectors that Kirchnerism says it despises even if it comes from there, the increase in tariffs will shake the price index and it will be projected, in chain, on the official dollar, on the parallels and on the exchange gap. Not an easy task for Massa.
Last on the price trend, the consultancy LCG calculated that the average cost of food increased by 7.9% in October, with 12.4 in dairy products, 11.3 in vegetables and 9.4 for bread and pasta. . Therefore, we would already be around 96% from October 2021 to October 2022 and we will head towards 100% per annum in December, precisely to the indicator that defines the level of poverty.
And finally with the data on the work of a study center close to Kirchnerism. One: the purchasing power of average income decreased by 7.7% in 2022 compared to 2021 and no less than 24.3% compared to 2017. Two: measured in food, the account of registered, unionized and joint workers shows a decrease of 23.8% compared to December 2015.
There is no way that Kirchnerism can get rid of its part in this mess, much less pretend that wages are believed to be beating inflation when everyone seems to be losing as in war.
Source: Clarin
