The government is suspicious of what’s happening with the climate – droughts and late frosts – in the agricultural sector as volumes are starting to suffer and lower dollar income is already expected after a record 2022.
Due to the increase in prices in the last months after the Russian invasion of Ukraine – with soybeans exceeding the all-time high of 651 US dollars – the entry of agrodollars was a record with over 35,000 million dollars. and in the absence of two months at the end of the year, the January-October cumulative has already exceeded the total of the previous years. This brand was led by the soybean dollar in September, when $ 8.1 billion came in.
Anyway, the marketing of the bean is still lagging behind compared to the same date of the previous year. And no acceleration is expected in the coming months, which will put the Executive in difficulty.
So far, the farmers 31.5 million tons were released against the 33.6 million that had been sold in 2021. There are therefore 11.8 million tons of beans in the hands of the productr valued at US $ 4.7 billion.
As explained by Juan Manuel Uberti, market analyst at the Grassi brokerage, normally, from one campaign to another, usually between 6 and 8 million tons of oilseeds pass, so the producer would sell between 3-4 million tons. until the junction of the new soybean harvest, which will take place from March to April. “Since the producer does not have the grain to make money, he is forced to sell soybeans there,” he added to his analysis of him.
“Thanks to the soybean dollar, the producer bought (it was traded for 200 soybeans) like never before in history, which makes the producer need to sell raw materials at harvest time in the first half of 2023 one of the lowest or the lowest in history, ”said a producer from southern Córdoba who wanted to remain anonymous.
The currency gap It is one of the main causes that make the manufacturer reluctant to deliver his goods. The local producer receives 40% of what the harvest is quoted internationally, adding the withholdings of 33%.
Given the dollar shortage that already exists and is expected in the coming months, the government announced on Tuesday the opening of a new corn export quota of 10 million tons in the 2022/23 campaign (cycle in which only 25% of the surface has been recently planted due to drought), which sets the new “equilibrium volume” (how much exportable) of corn at 20 million tons . This allows the Executive to collect the withholdings (12%) of the cereal in advance.
Drought rages across much of the country. The National Drought Monitoring Board identified in its latest October report that there are approximately 140 million hectares of drought in Argentina, and of this total, more than 7 million are in the severely affected category and have been identified in three key provinces for agriculture: Buenos Aires (44 districts), Santa Fe (4 districts) and Entre Ríos (5 districts).
Wheat is the most affected crop so far. According to the latest private estimates of the Rosary Exchange, it calculates a harvest of 11.8 million tons against 23 million last year, and Rosario’s own purse already ensures that exports of the crop will drop by over 1,500 million compared to the last campaign when they reached 4,600 million dollars.
The lack of moisture in the batches, in turn, delayed sowing of maize and soybeans, the two main crops grown in the country. In the case of cereals, 22% of the planned 7.3 million hectares have been planted and producers are expected to switch to late planting. And as for oilseeds, so far only 5% of the planned 17 million hectares have been planted against the 50% that had been planted last year up to this date.
Relief would come this week and could be anticipated mainly with sowing, as the wheat yield of wheat is already defined. In this sense, the National Institute of Agricultural Technology (INTA) has anticipated the arrival of the rains in the coming days. “The models announce a high probability of rain events starting on Thursday and, in some areas, with significant millimeters for the entire center and north of the country,” said Pablo Mercuri, director of the Research Center on Natural Resources (CIRN ) of the INTA.
Source: Clarin
