A couple of advisers agreed these days that economic activity has managed to recover to the level it showed in 2017, meaning it has equaled the best record of the INDEC series that started in 2004. Strong, but not that strong.
The most representative measure per inhabitant says, however, that we are still 5 percentage points below 2017 and even far from 2015. In the end, little or nothing around here: five years stuck in the same place or, indeed, five years ago.
Another way to look at where we are now is to discount the statistical drag that comes from 2021 from 2022 GDP, calculated at around 3%. And if 2022 GDP marks an increase of 4.8%, as indicated by the average of analysts consulted by the Central Bank, this year’s net would drop growth of no more than 2%. Again, little or nothing.
Thus, the result of crossing the numbers and placing them where they go on the board equals a dense social climate and visible everywhere and, moreover, with a perception of reality very different from that proclaimed by the Government. Nothing to do, now, with the story of the vigorous economic recovery.
The latest INDEC indicators speak precisely of this phenomenon.
Both in the monthly statistics that measure the trend of the manufacturing industry and in that which does the same with construction, a common, almost traced figure appears. Of the ten months between January and October of this year, the champions sing six negative versus four positive.
And even if in comparison with last year the numbers painted in blue predominate, even there it is clear that the trend is entering stagnation zone.
The indicator of construction October records a decrease of 0.9% compared to October 2021 aethe industrial oneagain from October, it reveals a very modest increase of 0.8% on December 2021. Furthermore, if we discount the statistical drags of 2021, we have industry and construction in full red.
It is difficult to put this very specific data into the file Plan Arrival by Sergio Massa and costs more, when you look at the inflation accumulated during the four months in which he was at the helm of the Ministry of Economy. In rounded figures and with 5.5% in November, the bill gives 27% and extends to around 35% in five months if the usually difficult December remains in the 6% area.
There is a half-hidden meaning in the description of this panorama, in addition to all those related to political interests or those that everyone wants to incorporate.
Put simply, it aims to present the difficulties and implicit and explicit risks in any attempt at restructuring or raking in the social plans, even if they walk towards the falls.
To begin with, a very recent report from the Universidad Católica Argentina states that 40% of families receive some kind of plan and also that, without these programs or any similar assistance, poverty would be 50% instead of 43%. And the homeless, almost 20% instead of 8%.
We are talking about people, if necessary. Those percentages indicated by the UCA report also represent 21.5 million poor people living in urban centres, of which 8.5 million would be indigent.
The point is that the cost of social plans inflates public accounts in times of fiscal adjustments to the IMF model and there is no shortage of those who think of the mower.
According to data from the Ministry of Economy for this year covering up to December 6, Potenciar Trabajo consumed 410,000 million dollars, or 124% more than in the same period of 2021. In the so-called Food Policies, the figures are respectively 352,000 million dollars and 54%.
Around and within these numbers appear others also full of connotations. One of these is the portion that remains in the province of Buenos Aires and is administered by social organizations and another, that in both programs the budget is practically exhausted or, if you prefer, that more money is urgently needed.
In order of appearance, the Empowering Work accounts, which should cover the lack of work and not engage in politics, reveal that the province governed by Axel Kicillof, Cristina K.’s favorite president, cIt concentrates 49% of the total game, or $200,000 million.
In other words, the remaining 23 provinces, including the city of Buenos Aires, were expected to share 51%, or $210,000 million. A variant of the same, but reloaded, adds that CABA received 34,500 million, or 8% of the total, and that Córdoba and Santa Fe each received 14,000 million, or a very modest 3.4% per capita.
And what does distribution say in food policies or, if you prefer, in the food charter? It says much the same about Enhance Work.
That is, $130,000 million out of a total of $352,000 for Buenos Aires; 36,000 million to CABA; Córdoba 22,000 million and 20,000 million in Santa Fe. In other words, 37% for a single province versus 63% spread across 23.
It is evident, in the course and in the recent proportions, Cristinism’s commitment to maintain the province of Buenos Aires and strengthen Kicillof’s electoral chances wherever you race. And why not, those of Cristina herself, if she pulls back with her resignation and waits for the conviction for corruption to be final.
Having said this and adding the economic and social context, what follows assumes or assumes that the items for the Employment and Nutrition plans, now practically exhausted, they will be strengthened sooner rather than later. This will be the case, despite the irregularities that have begun to be discovered very late and the dark spots in the administration of resources.
Something similar applies to the flow of resources that arise from the so-called discretionary transfers, managed by the Casa Rosada according to its own political interests and outside the National Budget.
Yet K-style federalism, this year the Buenos Aires game is here for 200,000 million long pesos or 43% of the total package. The portions of Santa Fe, Córdoba and La Rioja that follow it do not even reach 6%.
It has been seen that if it is a matter of money Kicillof does not and will not lack money, but it remains to be seen whether silver alone wins the election or, for that matter, whether it wins the next election.
We are talking about strong and critical things, such as the 42% poverty that affects 5.3 million people in the suburbs of Buenos Aires and which is exceeded only, among the 32 urban agglomerations that INDEC surveys, by 49% in Concordia. The records of the GBA are greater than those that existed at the beginning of the Kirchner administration and, obviously, despite the fact that the power box has always worked at full capacity.
Plus, the overall picture doesn’t exactly look encouraging either. Some consultancies forecast zero growth or a 2% decline and recession for 2023; inflation of 110% or in any case at the maximum of 100%; likelihood of currency tremors caused by shortage of reserves and steady deterioration of income.
It is not necessary to clarify: the elections will be played on this ground and this court is also an indicator of what awaits the victor. Sure, if winners are those who get the most votes.
Source: Clarin
