The economic activity grew 4.5% year-on-year in October, but contracted 0.3% from its September measurement according to the monthly activity estimator published by the National Institute of Statistics and Censuses. It had dropped by 0.2% in September.
With these results, economic activity accumulates an expansion of 6.1% between January and October, compared to the same period in 2021.
According to the latest official information, twelve of the fifteen sectors that make up the EMAE have shown increases on an annual basis. The hotels and restaurants category was the one that recorded the highest year-over-year growth through October, at 27.2%. According to the estimator, the wholesale and retail trade (5.3%) and the exploration of mines and quarries (12.5%) also had a positive impact, the level of which anticipates the data on the global evolution of the product gross domestic.
According to the forecasts of the International Monetary Fund (which this Thursday will deal with the Argentine case as part of the current Extended Facilities programme), Argentina will grow 4% this year. In 2021, GDP grew by 10.3%. The Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) also changed its local GDP growth forecast from 3.6% to 4.4% for this year.
Other sectors that sustained year-over-year growth in October, according to official sources, were industry (3.8%) and transport and communications (6.1%). For its part, the fishing sector was the one that recorded the greatest decline in the interannual comparison (29.6%), followed by financial intermediation (1.8%).
As for the slowdown of the economy on a monthly basis, (0.3%), according to the consultancy firm Acm, “the value falls within the expected parameters, a slowdown in growth being expected by the end of the year”, he said in a relationship. “Since when am I difficulties in terms of production due to import restrictions, an attempt will be made to resume the path of growth through increases in demand. Like the last seen ads on direct transfers to households or interest-free installment plans,” she said.
In his forecasts, the consultant estimates that by 2022 it is reasonable to expect growth of the economy is around 5.5%. This is in line with market expectations, where the latest REM forecast (Central Bank economist forecasts) projects growth of 5.3%.
“After 5 months of growth, the economy appears to have stagnated, accumulating a second consecutive month of contraction,” consultancy firm LCG said. “Although it would take a longer period to confirm a trend, it should be noted that 0.5% of product was lost in the last 2 months, equal to an annualized rate of -2.9%”.
For 2023, LCG estimates growth of less than 1%.
Source: Clarin
