For
George Castro
International analyst
There are multiple indications that US President Joe Biden’s administration has decided to end the war in Ukraine in 2023, which means that considered failed his attempt to drastically weaken Russia’s military might so as to irreversibly change its status as a major international power.
This is due, among other things, to the fact that the cost of the operation has become truly extraordinary; and the United States has invested more than $68 billion in 10 months of fighting, which is almost double the amount allocated to Afghanistan in two decades of conflict.
Moreover, the risk of an escalation of the war is increasingwith the direct involvement of Ukraine’s neighboring NATO (Western Alliance) member countries.
Add to this that the government of President Vladimir Zelenski has repeatedly slipped out of control of the Pentagon, and his obvious goal now is to directly involve the US and NATO in a war with Russia all along the line, despite the obvious and qualitative increase in nuclear risk that this entails.
Russia took over six months ago a defensive strategy in the south and southeast of Ukraine, supported by a truly formidable system of defenses and trenches, which gives the war a necessarily protracted and long-lasting character that can extend it to 2023 and 2024, or even beyond. Russian supply lines are from the Russian-Ukrainian border located no more than 300 kilometers from the frontline; and this occurs when the missile offensive carried out by the Russian army against Ukraine’s energy and connectivity infrastructure has already destroyed more than 50% of the system.
That is why General Mark Milley, Chief of Staff of the US military, publicly signaled to Zelensky the need to start diplomatic negotiations with Russia stop fighting and end the war.
This coincided with a speech on French television by President Emmanuel Macron on 3 December in which he warned of the need to establish a security system in Europe including Russia after the warand at the same time definitively exclude Ukraine from NATO, as Vladimir Putin has permanently demanded.
Germany, the first industrial power in Europe, and also the fourth economy in the global system it has recovered its strategic autonomy vis-à-vis the United States.; and established a new link with China, as was unequivocally evidenced by the recent trip to Beijing by Chancellor Olaf Scholz, who heads a delegation of 80 leading German companies, including Volkswagen and BASF, the world’s largest chemical company.
In Beijing, Chancellor Scholz expressed his opinion rejection of any attempt to break with the Chinese economyclearly distancing itself from US policy.
The end of the Ukrainian war thus becomes the main issue of world politics in 2023; and since the law of necessity rules in international affairs, The United States is forced to change its relationship with Chinain a process that began with the Biden/Xi Jinping meeting held in Bali, Indonesia, in the context of the G-20, and which Secretary of State Anthony Blinken now intends to agree on for a trip to the People’s Republic which will take place in January/ February next year.
The US strategic turn towards Ukraine implies a change in world conditions, in which not only the end of the conflict is at stake, but also the formulation of a new global order of a multipolar natureaway from both US hegemony and NATO as a military alliance.
Secretary Blinken’s trip to the People’s Republic would discuss the main lines of the negotiations between Russia and Ukrainecounting as is evident with China’s influence in President Vladimir Putin.
A high-level US delegation is currently in China to negotiate the terms of Secretary Blinken’s trip, consisting of Under Secretary of State for Southeast Asia Daniel Kritenbrink and National Security Council China Affairs Chief Laura Rosenberg.
In summary, the Ukrainian war has entered a new historical phase, and the next step is focused on the forms and conditions for the end of the conflict, and in this new stage in the history of the world Absolutely central is the leading role of the People’s Republic, the second largest economy in the world, the first commercial power in the system and a permanent member of the United Nations Security Council with veto power.
china has a direct interest in conflict resolution because Europe is its largest trading partner, above the United States, and at a similar level to ASEAN (Association of Southeast Asian Countries); and the war and its aftermath have severely eroded this primordial relationship.
Source: Clarin
