The jump of the blue dollar in the last week and the tension in parallel prices that became apparent this Wednesday do not seem to worry the Governmentwho believes it is a temporary situation and which will “normalize” next weekwith the beginning of 2023.
The acceleration of the parallel dollar and the gap, which has again exceeded 100% in the last part of the year, do not worry too much the economic team, which argues that the rise of these days, especially the ticket price on the road, is due to problems circumstantial of this moment and that from Monday there will be a drop in prices.
While in the city they say that the request for the US ticket flies to the streets “dry”, in the corridors of the Ministry of Economy they ensure that this is due to the fact that many Argentines have started closing their accounts in the United States in light of the recent FATCA agreement signed between the two countries.
“This will dissolve when the anti-money laundering law is known and savers understand that the agreement has been in effect since September 20, 2022. Therefore, even if now in December they disarm their positions and want to bring dollars into the country, the problem with the AFIP will have the same,” they say.
The Government is rushing to draft a package of laws that will be sent to Congress to be treated in extraordinary sessions, among which the Capital Exteriorization Act is of central importance following the information exchange agreement with the United States.
Another of the factors that the Government believes fueled the blue leap at the end of the year, for a purely technical matter of the informal market. “This week there are many wholesale caves on vacation. These are the ones who set the price. The prices seen these days are not representative and from Monday they will return to their previous levels,” they say.
Officials agree on one point with analysts in the city: they believe that supply has been reduced due to the impact of the introduction of a differentiated dollar for those foreign tourists to the country who pay for their consumption with credit cards. But they reject that this phenomenon persists.
At the same time they emphasize it Demand has grown following the payment of Christmas bonuses and the search for tourists returning from the World Cup in Qatar or those planning to travel abroad in the coming weeks. “Many of those who leave the country prefer to take cash so that their expenses are not recorded and therefore do not have problems with AFIP,” they say
According to this analysis, the blue, whose jump has already exceeded 14% in December so far, would begin to retrace its upward trajectory from January and would remain calm in the summer months. “There will be a rebound in January,” they say.
After the central bank confirmed that it had already purchased more than US$1.3 billion this month following an extraordinary liquidation of the field as part of the reopening program for soybean exporters, the government assured that the target reserve fixed with The fund for this year “is more than satisfied”.
The soybean dollar program will close on Friday as scheduled, the deadline for exporters to submit their affidavits will be extended by an additional three business days. It’s a request from the industry, which claims that due to December holidays and public holidays, both in the country and in the United States, the bureaucratic part of this process was not completed in time.
Just as a swallow does not make spring, the government was assured that the nominal leap of the last wheels was not due to macroeconomic factors or bad expectations on the financial front. The truth is that the Treasury has a busy summer ahead in terms of peso debt maturities, which could mean an additional component of pressure on the foreign exchange front.
Faced with this, officials are preparing a series of tools that will be presented to the market next month, which “will give more certainty to the weight market”. The Ministry of the Economy is already expecting a first month of the year “of a lot of work”, with many announcements and measures that serve to “maintain the level of activity,
Source: Clarin
