There is shocking data: all 21 shares of Argentine companies that make up the Merval index rose in December, leaving earnings between 13% and 38%.
During the year, the same index of the Buenos Aires Stock Exchange measured in dollars rose by 42% and left behind the discouraging financial results of recent years.
The rise responds, in part, to the improvement of business results and was driven by the strong take-off in shares related to oil and energy companies.
The icon for this move was the action of YP extension whose ADR (American Depositary Receipt, a US bank certificate for shares not listed in that country) increased by 11% this month and 144% on the year.
The energy party peaked based on better results and perhaps as a way to get ahead of the election year. Argentine asset prices were so depressed that any possible change of scenery for 2023 was considered a buying opportunity.
While equities rose perpendicular to Argentine dollar bonds, while very depressed, they rallied a bit but on average continue 20% less in the year.
Investor confidence is placed in the private sector, while the public sector debit card always is threatened by possible defaults or slapsThey carry the weight of doubt.
The actions seem to anticipate a 2023 that has an economic certainty that invites prudence: due to the drought, fewer dollars will come of the agro-export sector.
An extensive consultant report weight scale by Diego Bossio and Martín Rapetti estimates a 6% drop in agri-food exports, despite the rains of recent weeks “have partially recharged the soil profile, accelerating the pace of progress in soybean and corn planting”.
According to the study, soybean production will be 11% lower than the average of the last 10 years (it would reach 45.6 million tons) and in the case of corn it would drop to 46.8 million tons from 54.6 million tons tons. countryside.
Another interesting fact is that this campaign soybeans catch up in front of the corn and a trigger would have been the soy dollar that Sergio Massa has implemented.
The devaluation for soybean settlements was “the” economy minister’s measure to get dollars and he succeeded, albeit with diminishing effects.
In the first edition of the soybean dollar, 7,668 million dollars were liquidated and the Central Bank managed to buy 4,974 million US dollars, while in the second, through December 21, US$ 2,857 million was liquidated and reserves increased by $1,648 million.
In the first case, the Centrale bought 65% of the dollars injected, while in the second case this percentage was around 58%.
Scratching a pledge to liquidate $3,000 million in response to a $230 soybean dollar, the government ends the year by raising the wholesale dollar by 5.7% for the month and with a currency gap of 100%.as at the beginning of 2022, the movie about the shift delay is still being made.
This year wholesale dollar climbs 72.1%, the “case with liquidation” 70% and the blue 71%. The mismatch between exchange rates remains displaced over time and with the background that the minister will continue to “pull rabbits from the galley” such as the soybean dollar with the conviction that he should not devalue because doing so could lead to hyperinflation.
But, without a full devaluation and with a significant spending adjustment (the economist Andrew Borenstein claims that pension spending in November was the lowest in seasonally adjusted real terms since December 2014) the year ends with inflation close to 100% and leaves no good news for the start of 2023: the Government has postponed increases of fares, fuel and services that They will arrive in the first part of 2023.
Election year comes with the private sector making decisions and the government trying to delay and sweep them under the rug so that the problems to be solved fall on to the next one.
Source: Clarin
