The blue dollar shakes off its year-end hangover and climbs again. At noon this Tuesday, it is trading at $353a seven peso increase from Monday’s close, when it closed at $346.
Blue’s upward readjustment comes as no surprise to the market. At the start of the holidays, informal tends to rise for seasonal reasons,
There are five reasons driving the increase:
tourist demand
The arrival of the holidays leads travelers to buy dollar bills. With the very restricted exchange rate, which excludes a large part of the workers from the official market, the informal market is one of the possible supply routes. Added to this is one more reason: with the introduction of the Qatari dollar, those who go on holiday outside the country should change pesos into blue and buy every dollar at $353, before paying by card and having them pay off at $371. The difference of 18 pesos is too marked for travelers to ignore.
drop in supply
Last month the tourist dollar was finally launched for foreigners, which allows them to pay by e-card obtain an exchange rate equivalent to that of the euro deputy dollar, today in $333. Although the change is not as advantageous as that obtained in blue – where tickets can be bought for 348 dollars – the convenience of paying with a card reduces the offer and the “little trees” have fewer green banknotes available to meet local demand. The lower the bid, the higher the price.
The bonus effect
Despite the fact that in 2022 the dollar was not a good hedge against loss of purchasing power – the blue one rose by 68% and yielded less than a common fixed maturity in pesos which averaged 80% – the North American banknote continues to be at the top among the savings variants chosen by Argentines. With the collection of the bonus, those who have the ability to save start buying to try to protect themselves.
The lag before inflation
In 2022, blue rose less than inflation: 68% against a price index estimated at 95%. This sets the tone that the dollar is “behind,” which in turn fuels the perception that there could be a marked price correction at any time and makes savers buy to prevent themselves.
The flurry of pesos
Although the Central Bank’s loans to the Treasury were stopped last year, The issuance of pesos was higher than in 2021. This happened because the monetary authority had to issue to redeem the debt and for specific programs, such as the soybean dollar. In its two versions, this program allowed the liquidation of $10 billion but at the cost of launching the “machine” to give agro-exporters better change.
Portfolio Personal Inversiones estimates that there is an excess of 6.2 trillion pesos around, an amount equal to 7.6% of GDP. This flood of pesos puts pressure on both the dollar and prices, which is why it ends up having an impact on inflation.
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Source: Clarin
