When they received the invitation, some thought they were going to see Mauricio Filiberti’s yacht of immense proportions. They were wrong. That ship has never sailed in the South Seas. Her ports are Monaco, Saint Tropez and Sardinia. And, as they say, ceased to belong to him.
The truth is that “Mr. chlorine”, the nickname by which Filiberti is known in honor of his status as the main supplier of AySA, celebrated his 73 years in style together with José Luis Manzano, partner in his latest business, Edenor Grant.
It was the summer party in Punta del Este. Martín Redrado especially came to the La Olada restaurant in La Juanita, next to José Ignacio; José Urtubey, of Cellulose; Sebastián Bagó, who guides in the workshops; bankers Juan Nápoli and Gabriel Martino; Luis Galli, of the Newsan group; ex Fiat Cristiano Rattazzi, Martín Cabrales and PRO politicians Federico Salvai and Carolina Stanley, among others.
More discreet, with almost the same guests, was Rubén Cherñajovsky’s 75th birthday celebration held in his stately residence. The leader of electronic music from Tierra del Fuego had Carlos Melconian.
According to a guest, the economist talked about the effort to order the macro and also that they will throw the ball to the winner of the election in a year where the economy will be conditioned by politics.
There he learned about Cherñakhovsky’s plans. He will venture even further into fishing, cornmeal and honey. The novelty is that with cars whose hearts are becoming less mechanical and more electronic, they launch themselves to produce auto parts In the footsteps of Mirgor, Macri’s best friend, Nicky Caputo. Of course, in the province of Buenos Aires and without the advantages of the island.
In other sectors they say they are monthly planning a strategy that consists of how to protect the box in pesos. Hence the purchases of sheds, company buildings, machinery. It’s all about dollarising assets and weighing liabilities. One of the concerns of these CEOs is whether the government it will leave a bomb about to explode.
For Jorge Vasconcelos, the second half of 2022 was fundamental because “it single command restored In the management of the economy, inflation has been fully exploited, which has increased the collection of taxes in nominal terms, the soybeans of the silobolsas have been transformed into exportsthe interest rate was raised so that private deposits in the banking system ended up increasing by 97% in the year in nominal terms”.
But immediately the chief investigator of the Ieral clarifies it none of the measures were free in terms of “economic legacy”, not for 2024 but for this year.
“The consolidated deficit including the BCRA quasi-fiscal exceeded 8 points of GDP in 2022, reflecting the issuance and sharp increase in Treasury and BCRA indebtedness, the external sector deteriorated and the level of activity it got cold. As 2023 progresses, we may find ourselves at scenario of marked political fragmentation, instead of the single command of recent months “, warns.
Dante Sica, Macri’s former Minister of Industry and Labor and now an active member of Patricia Bullrich’s technical teams, acknowledges that Massa has managed to reduce the likelihood of a catastrophe with the currency crisis and spiraling inflation. But he postponed the resolution of conflicts.
“The economy is like a ship with holes below the waterline. The ship has bilge pumps that take some of the water out in a year that hasn’t been played yet, with a lack of political will and ability to make the changes that are needed right now,” he argues.
In the everyday life of the industrialists it is argued that if finally there is no devaluation and demand continues, the problem it will be the offer that depends on the availability of dollars for a value chain that consumes dollars to a greater or lesser extent. The system known as Sira grants access to the official exchange rate but within a 180 day period which is not accepted by foreign suppliers. With exceptions. Among them, the automotive industry.
Alejandro Díaz, CEO of AmCham, which protects companies with foreign capital, says after the president’s attempt to prosecute the Supreme Court, a new concern has emerged that climbed to the top of the agenda. “There is strangeness and has a significant impact when it comes to convincing for investment in the country, it acts on expectations, just when there is decisive support from Washington to avoid a crisis in Argentina”.
As for the price negotiations, which take place at the desk of the official in charge, Germán Cervantes, Díaz assures that they take place in an amicable framework and that they mark a path of greater predictability.
Some SMEs they don’t feel the same way. Many are outside these deals that are negotiated with big companies. But the agreed value has an impact on the rest of the chain which has no scale.
“We got used to it manage in this uncertainty”, Alejandro Reca, one of the owners of the San Ignacio dairy, shoots, a SME that increases its turnover by 17% with exports of dulce de leche and gorgonzola.
“With almost non-existent margins, my problem is working capital and both private and official banks are reluctant to lend.” Reca says they are in a field where cannot stop investing and expanding: He just opened a state-of-the-art boiler and started doubling capacity.
Nicolás Pino, president of La Rural, confesses that he speaks at least three times a week with Massa and secretary Bahillo. On the side of the government usually perceives that pious tone as one used with a sick person with no cure, “but they don’t solve it”.
They are in the midst of an erratic drought that is also devastating livestock. Animals die in the fields or go to slaughter e Reflects the price of meat. The live kilo was worth $340 in April and today, 320. Something similar happens with the calves which were paid $400 in July and now $340 in a scenario where even the Hilton share, flagship of the refrigerator business, it went from 14,000 US dollars a ton to the current 8,000. Unusual.
Away from these difficulties, at the end of December Pablo González, head of YPF, summoned the main oil companies to his office. This lawyer, who made his first weapons with the Patagonian unions, arrived at the YPF promoted by Máximo Kirchner, displaced officials who have responded to previous efforts and put Pablo Iuliano as CEO and Alejandro Lew in finance as bishops.
In the glass tower, which bears the stamp of the great César Pelli and before Marcos Bulgheroni (PAE), Ricardo Markous (Tecpetrol), Marcelo Mindlin (Pampa) and Eduardo Eurnekian, among others, he described the situation of a YPF which has reduced debt, increased production, and posted record operating income. In this way, he announced that the state oil company can take out new loans for US$5 billion and suggested joining him to double volumes at Vaca Muertanow that oil and gas pipelines are a reality.
There was enthusiasm and comments about the potential. But they told him about a significant increase in dollar costs, limitations in drilling, fracturing and completion equipment in a scenario where project financing is the other major constraint.
And on top they appear black swans, such as the enacted provincial purchasing law of Neuquén, which benefits local businesses, even if they have higher prices. It was designed for apple and pear packers. It extends to everyone. In any case, the tankers claim this it will impact shale service providers and complicate their business.
That perception was experienced yesterday in Economics when the 5.1% which showed December inflation. They feel the storm. They still trust to normalize. “It’s Massa’s chance”, they slide, will it be?
In his monumental Raúl Alfonsín, The inverted planisphere, Pablo Gerchunoff reflects that “the fragile governments of fragile and troubled nations they have only one economic opportunity, if they have one.”
Source: Clarin
