For
George Castro
International analyst
On January 8, the mandatory quarantine for tourists arriving from abroad ended in China, and citizens of the People’s Republic will be able to renew their passport to travel around the world; and like this The prohibitive rule prevailing in the last 3 years in the second economy of the global system is over and the other superpower on the planet together with the United States.
In the pre-pandemic phase (2019), 155 million Chinese tourists have traveled overseasexceeding the average of the previous 10 years.
We must add that every Chinese tourist spent $8,700 per trip during that time and per person, which is more than German and North American tourists, traditionally leading the world’s tourism until then.
Overseas Chinese travelers are from a middle class of more than 500 million peoplewho have incomes comparable to those of North Americans (US$40,000/US$50,000 annually) and which are increasing by 8.1% annually.
Finally, it should be noted that the disposable income of this middle class, beyond the basic consumption intended to cover food, housing and health care expenses, increases by 15.5% per year; and as an example of the civilizing aspect of capitalist accumulation there is a growing trend among Chinese consumers to invest in cultural goodssuch as more advanced education, travel, and language proficiency.
All this in a world like China, which is the most digitized in the world, and in which the number of Internet users exceeds 1,100 million participants this yearout of a population of 1,440 million inhabitants.
McKinsey Asia Travel estimates the level of Chinese overseas tourism achieved in 2019 it will fully recover from May 2023and from there it will grow rapidly above the levels of 4 years ago, because the deficit of this period caused by the pandemic has also been a truly extraordinary source of savings.
Trip.com – the main travel agency of the People’s Republic – anticipates a 250% increase in foreign reserves starting January 8; and at the same time estimates that sales of air tickets to Europe and the United States will triple in the second half of the year compared to the record levels of 2019.
At the same time, the domestic consumption of the People’s Republic led by a real explosion of domestic tourismit seems to fly. For this reason, City Bank China expects an 11% increase over last year, which means more than US$7 trillion, or one-third of the People’s Republic’s GDP increase annually.
In the next 3 months, foreign banks estimate, the crisis caused by Covid-19 would be completely overcome, which means that international and domestic tourism would recover the levels of 2019, and from then on it would tend to grow rapidly.
4 years ago Chinese tourists have spent more than $280 billion overseas; and have invested more than $90 billion in luxury goods, by far the highest number in the global system.
It is also expected a multiplication of business trips abroad. Thus, for example, in December alone, more than 15 large Chinese cities chartered charter flights to bring their companies to sell in Europe and the Middle East.
Hence, it is expected in the world economy a phenomenal boom in acquisitions and mergers (M&A) of Chinese companies overseas, especially in industrial and high-tech businesses.
Very revealing is what happened with the Japanese pharmaceutical industry, which based on the experience of 2019 is preparing for an explosion in sales of its products due to the insatiable desire of Chinese tourists to buy them; and for this they have deemed it prudent to triple their pharmaceutical production in 2023.
The World Tourism Organization (WTO) estimates it This year, 57 percent of Chinese tourists’ spending abroad will be on shopping and foodpredicting an increase of 10 points, or maybe more, in the next 2 years.
It is clear that China’s “soft power” – the effect of attraction through admiration – is on the rise in the world; and derives from its extraordinary capacity for growth and transformation, always – and this is doubly striking – within a exceptional political and social stabilitynotorious work of an internal consensus and a political system of the highest legitimacy.
But there is no doubt that the spending of its tourists abroad, which will flourish again in 2023, is today a fundamental component of the image and attractiveness of the People’s Republic in the world.
So it’s highly probable that the idea of even an existential “Chinese threat” to the West could be broken in the period starting on 8 January.
In exercising its full strategic autonomy, France has proclaimed that Chinese tourists are welcome in the cradle of European culture. There is no concern about China’s validity as an “existential threat” to the West.
Source: Clarin
