Inflation, which had slowed down slightly in the last two months, is running at risk of going back to January. For now, according to analysts, It will be much higher than in Decemberre, (5.1%) and some forecasts already place it more than 6% per month.
Last year, the high point in terms of inflation occurred between July (7.4%) and October (6.3%). Then, in November, between the price agreements and the expectation of Sergio Massa’s new management in Economics, the variable “dropped” to 4.9%. It rebounded to 5.1% in December.
However, in the last few hours, new measures to contain the pressure on exchange rates (the repurchase of dollar debt securities) they would also aim to cool the price needle that officials have started imagining on a new upward slope.
Already the possibility of extending the Fair Prices agreement in supermarkets, expiring at the end of February, is one of the alibis for strengthening the price index. However, that seems to be not enough.
Shortly after the first month of the year, the measures of economists warn that January would bring an average price increase of 5.5% or 6%, according to preliminary estimates.
From Equilibrium, the Economist Lorenzo Sigaut Gravina he stressed, “we don’t have any measurements yet, but our projection is slightly higher than in December due to the strong increases implemented in the regulated prices e seasonal ones, since January is usually a complicated month in this area.” “We expect an increase in the month around 5.5%“said the analyst.
Fausto Spotorno, An economist from the Ferreres & Asociados study points out that the last few weeks measured have seen an increase of 3.9%. Within this result, food and beverages recorded an average increase of 4.1%. According to the analyst, from this basis, the forecast is that January will end with an increase close to 5%, he estimated.
Even for the consultant Echo Go, the Food and beverages will increase the index at a monthly rate of 4.4%, if a change of 0.8% is applied for the remaining weeks of the month. However, other items have a particular impact on inflation for the month: lThe increases in prepaid rates (6.5%), fuel (2%), gas, electricity and water (respectively 14.1%, 19.6% and 20.1%), domestic services (6.5%), buses and trains in AMBA (between 20% and 70% depending on the service), among others.
Against this backdrop, the projection for the general level of inflation in January is 5.4%, according to EcoGo. In other words, “0.4 percentage points above what was expected the previous week due to a closer investigation of some included items and a slightly lower-than-expected record food inflation,” said Sebastian Menescaldi, an economist at the company. consulting.
One of the keys to determining the upward trend in inflation is the behavior of meat, a basic basket input, weighting into the consumer price index (CPI) used to measure inflation. Over the past year, this item increased by 62.4%, i.e. below general inflation, which was 94.8%.
According to the last week surveyed by EcoGo, “meats recorded an increase of 0.7% and continue to push the index finger down. “In the case of beef, the growth was driven by semi-finished products (2.2%) which reached 0.4%. Chicken recorded an increase of 1.2%, while fish and cured meats recorded variations by 0.1% and 1.5% respectively,” he said. in his latest report.
According to estimates by the Fundación Libertad y Progreso,” in the first 15 days of the year prices accelerated again. As a result, inflation for the last month on the move (last four weeks) stands at 5.9%. However, taking into account the dynamics of the last few weeks, January would close 6.3% – the highest figure since October”highlighted the group.
According to Emilio Prado, one of his economists, “the dynamics of prices in the first half of January leads to a new acceleration that will hinder Massa’s goal of arriving in April with inflation “with a three ahead”. .Moreover, “with excessive issuance of pesos affecting the purchasing power of the currency and persistent uncorrected deficit distortion (despite attempts at a ‘fiscal order’), the price trend will continue to rise as can be seen from the expectations of the agents interviewed by the Central Bank (REM), with projections of 98% per annum for this year,” he said.
Source: Clarin
