With the rise of the alternative dollar, which rose between 8 and 17 pesos, in the third week of April the exchange rate seems to have ended which has dominated the market since the Monetary Fund agreement was confirmed. With more turmoil in the markets, analysts expect that the Central Bank will have more difficulties in meeting the goal of accumulation of reserves agreed upon with the Monetary Fund, which predicts an increase in $ 5.8 billion throughout the year.

Due to the impact of the heavy harvest of soybeans and corn, the second quarter of the year was the strongest in terms of foreign exchange earnings. This year, the liquidation of the field has been strong since February due to high international grain prices. Even drought in the first quarter they entered US $ 8,000 million, 17% more than the same period last year. Despite this record of dollar earnings, Central’s purchases were few.

Although in April Central bought US $ 170 million, IERAL data shows that so far this year, Central’s net purchases show a red US $ 12 million, when in the same period of 2021 it is achieved positive balance of US $ 2,600 million.

“Despite the fact that the seasonality of harvest settlements has begun to play in favor, the BCRA has managed to add reserves for Only US $ 73 million over the past 21 days“, pointed out LCG consultancy.

IERAL pointed out that at the heart of the problem is “the battle between companies looking for dollars to pay for imports and the Central Bank preventing them from accumulating reserves“.

The struggle for this dollar “could end in the second semester, until the government continues its policy of excessive public spending,” they said, referring to the new IFE launched by the government and calling for spending to close. sa $ 2 billion.

LCG accounts show that net reserves currently reach $ 8 billion, $ 4 billion above the level at which they started in the year. “The increase is only due to the net contribution that the IMF disbursement means,” they detail.

From now on, the fate of the reserves will depend on the pulse of Central. At a table, they have to huddle in the market seeing how with the jump of the dollar in recent days, the carry trade season that allows them to earn by betting on the rate increase on the peso with the dollar still, is coming to an end . , etc. keep your appetite for hard money. At the other table, wrestling arm in arm with importers seeking to promote purchases to take advantage of “cheap dollars.”

Outside of this game, the only saving card is a possible new contribution from the IMF to countries hit by the global crisis caused by the war in Ukraine, something that has not yet been fully closed.

“From now on, in the second trimester the goal of increasing net reserves is doubled to US $ 2,600 million. Possible IMF assistance for US $ 1,300 million as a result of the new Resilience and Sustainability Fund will not come until the last quarter of the year. Therefore, the BCRA should raise the rate of foreign currency accumulation taking advantage of the generally favorable second quarter, “argues Roberto Drimer, of Vat Net.” The situation is not impossible, but it continues to be seriously tight. “

“It will take lots of skill and good luck to maintain the budget imbalance within the agreed channels, due to the difficult overall situation and the almost political anarchy ”, he indicated.

“Agriculture is liquidating, the dollar is no longer behind (acceleration of crawl peg), but demand remains strongso BCRA doesn’t buy reserves, ”said economist Fernando Marull.

The FMyA director states that at the rate of purchases shown by the financial authority, he cannot recover the US $ 2,600 million missing. “At this speed it’s not coming. Solution? Tighten the trap again“Marull maintained.

AQ