The rising dollar – which hit $387 in late January before falling to trade this Thursday around $377 – has brought real estate prices back into focus. Faced with a scenario of instability in the currency in which properties are sold, the question buyers and investors are asking is whether the values will continue to fall or if they have already hit a floor.
Today’s photograph shows that the decline in property prices is accusatory a slowdown and which, from October, tends to stabilize.
According to an analysis of the announcements of the real estate portal Zonaprop, sales prices in the city of Buenos Aires have decreased by 0.3% this year and the value of the the average square meter was US$2,193. January was, therefore, the fourth month which recorded a slowdown in autumn
The same report specified that the value of a studio apartment is, on average, US$95,266; that a two-room apartment of 50 square meters (m2) is worth US$114,863 and a three-room apartment of 70m2 reaches US$161,600.
The volume of apartments priced down in January was 25%9 points below the October 2021 high, according to the portal. In general, real estate market operators agree on the fact that the percentage of “retail” that owners accept from buyers to consolidate a sale is declining: the average discount applied is between 5% and 8% on properties that they were already at market value.
For Ariel Champanier, CEO of RE/MAX Premium “until there are no mortgages and people have no ability to save, prices won’t go up.” She had even predicted it 2023 “will be marked by the stabilization of values and the reactivation of the real estate market”.
The real estate expert was convinced that “the prices They will not be affected by this dollar update because properties have been down for 4 years and hit a low in early 2022.”
“We believe the buyer knows that prices have come down enough to go out and buy, which goes some way to explaining the problem behavior in this devaluation unlike the others where the demand has decreased”, remarked Champanier.
According to his vision, “used apartments had to adjust their prices because people need the dollar bill to buy them, while in projects from the well, a similar unit can be accessed for the same price and in installments.”
The analyzes carried out each month by the University of San Andrés, with the statistics of Mercado Libre, coincide in the diagnosis: they seem to suggest “a certain slowdown in the fall in prices in the market for apartments for sale, with the exception of GBA Oeste,” his latest report indicated.
Considering inter-year changes (January 2023 versus January 2022), this survey observed reductions in the dollar price per m2 of homes 8% in CABA, 4.5% in GBA Norte, 6.7% in GBA Sur and 8% in GBA Oeste. On the other hand, year-over-year falls into the case of departments in CABA, GBA North, South and West were 6%, 3%, 3% and 7.7% respectively, compared to January 2022.
Other factors, moreover, would point the way towards a stabilization of prices, or at least towards an end to the fall. THE buying and selling operations are much more active in the last few months, almost at 2018 levels and with 35% lower prices. According to the latest register of the College of Notaries of the Federal Capital, in December 2022 – for the first time in four years – more than 4,253 monthly transactions were authenticated.
Building is a dollar business
On the other hand, this year started with the cost of construction measured in dollars with a drop of 7.1%. That is, building today is 37% cheaper than in April 2018 and 23% cheaper than the 2012-2022 average.
Christian Leupold, commercial director of Ávilis Real Estate, with projects for houses in the north area and apartments in CABA, estimated the construction price on average US $800 per m2, although in some buildings it can go as low as $700. “In other words, as of 2019 it is still a business to build. It’s still competitive,” the businessman said.
As for the situation with real estate prices, Real Estate Report analysts highlight the “great polarization of values” that exists in buildings with similar characteristics according to the different zones. In this sense they state that, for example, in Quilmes, the m2 costs 2,200 dollars, while a similar building in Belgrano R costs 3,428 dollars.
This polarization has deepened since the 1990s, when nearly all properties cost $1,000 per m2, says Germán Gómez Picasso, RI analyst. Meanwhile, his partner, José Rozados, claims that “currently the safety factor greatly influences the price of the property”. And he adds that today the only shares trading above US$2,000 are San Isidro, Vicente López and Tigre.
NEITHER
Source: Clarin
