Analysts and private consultants have recalculated their inflation projections downwards. For December 2022, they estimated an average retail price increase of 5.5% per month and inflation of 5.1%.
For January they estimate that monthly inflation will be 5.6% (Indec will publish the measure on Tuesday 14), while for February they project 5.5%, with average inflation in the first half of around 5.7% ( 0.2 points less than they forecast a month ago). And a full-year rate of 97.6% year-over-year (0.9 percentage points below the previous survey’s forecast).
Those who have best forecast this variable in the near term also expect inflation of 5.6% for January but 95.2% for 2023 (5.9 percentage points lower than in the December survey).
“Compared to the last survey, analysts have corrected the expected inflation values downwards for all months” of 2023, according to the market expectations survey (REM) published by the Central Bank (BCRA).
However, they raised their 2024 inflation forecast to 79.6% year-on-year (4.6 points), while lowering their inflation forecast by 0.8 points to 50.3% for 2025.
The BCRA report matches the results of the survey conducted between January 27 and 31, 2023 by 40 participants, including 26 local and international consultants and research centers and 14 Argentine financial entities.
In relation to economic activity, consultants and analysts have argued that the real change in Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for 2023 will be 0.5%. Meanwhile, for 2024 they expect economic growth of 1.0% y/y (-0.4 pp compared to the previous survey value). For 2025, they forecast a 2.0% change in real GDP.
The average monthly nominal wholesale exchange rate ($/US$) on business days was $182.24 per dollar in January 2023. The REM forecast indicates a monthly increase of $10.05 (+5.5% monthly) per dollar to $192.30 per dollar in February. at the same time, they expect an 89.6% increase for December 2023 ($327.75 per dollar).
Regarding unemployment, the REM estimates that open unemployment for the fourth quarter of 2022 would have been 7.3%. It would rise to 7.5% for the first quarter of 2023 (no change compared to the previous REM), and would close in the fourth quarter of this year at 7.8% (0.3 points compared to the previous survey).
Source: Clarin
