Wholesale inflation was 6.5% in January and is putting more pressure on retail this month

At 6.5% in January, higher wholesale prices continue to put pressure on retail inflation. And in 12 months it accumulates a 100% increase, even higher than the 94.8% of the consumer segment, according to INDEC data.

The wholesale data for January is higher than the 6.1% of December and added pressure to retail inflation in January, which also rose from 5.1% to 6%.

January’s wholesale increase “is a consequence of the 6.3% increase in “domestic products” and 8.5% in “imported products”.

Based on official data, LCG consultancy indicates that “over the past three months wholesale prices average an increase of 6.3% per month, accumulating a 20% increase.. This dynamic contrasts with that observed in retail prices, with an average monthly increase of 5.3% over the same period, accumulating a 17% increase. In this way, and although the comparison is not perfect, it would accumulate about 3 points of pent-up inflation from the price agreements affecting the value in the gondola.

With 14.2%, the tobaccoand 13%, prices agricultural it led increases last month, followed by 8% in prices imported. The latter two items account for more than 20% of the wholesale index, but their impact on the prices of basic retail necessities is greater, from which it can be seen that the CPI for this month of February leads to a further acceleration inflationary.

Although the average increase in wholesale values ​​has reached 100% over a twelve month period, many items accumulate larger increases. For example, this is the case of furniture and other industrial products (114.2%), imported (111%), textile clothing (117.4%), motor vehicles and spare parts (100.3%).

According to LCG, “by 2023 we expect wholesale prices to continue to evolve slightly above the retail index, which is why we expect a roughly 110% end-to-end change (nearly 12 points above the expected CPI).This would respond to a continuation and deepening of import restrictions, a multiple exchange rate pattern that is not conducive to coordinating replacement cost expectations, and a maintenance of the official dollar devaluation rate, which we hope will continue. to accompany the nominality of the wholesale price.