The Government would have started negotiations with private banks for advance in a new debt change in pesos. It is the fourth operation of this type that Sergio Massa is trying to carry out, in this case to postpone an important part of the deadlines prior to the elections, an event that presents itself as one of the greatest management challenges in the midst of the crisis. legacy that the next administration will receive.
Only between February and July, Treasury to renew commitments worth $12.7 trillion, and after PASO, another $18.1 billion. In total, it increases a wall of 30.8 billion in 2023, almost half of which is in the hands of the private sector, according to EcoGo.
As detailed by the banks, now, Massa looks to place stocks with payouts in 2024 and 2025, but financial institutions are calling for more “stimulus” and a tightening of fiscal adjustment after January’s inflation jump to nearly 100% year-on-year.
One of the options under study is for the authorities to offer in parallel with the exchange risk coverage or insurance through a contract (called PUT) with the Central Bank to assure the banks that the entity led by Miguel Pesce will repurchase the bonds if they want to sell them. “It’s a stock trade with an associated put, nothing fancy, I imagine it will trade a lot,” confirmed a banker.
The operation is not new. The BCRA already launched the PUT in July, when Silvina Batakis replaced Martín Guzmán in the Ministry of Economy. At the time, the central bank bought more than 1.2 trillion treasuries short from investors to shore up their value after the massive outflow of peso debt funds in June, a situation that has since stabilized at the cost of higher weight output. It also emerged that there is talk of some tax relief.
The other handy tool are i double bonuses, tools that Massa launched in August of last year to reset the second semester deadlines and which he reused in the last exchange of last month.
With the “carrot” of a hedge against devaluation and inflation, The economy reduced first quarter maturities from $4.3 trillion to $1.41 trillion, but the cost was not free.
First, as a recent report by GMA Capital points out,“These are “unliquidable” debts for the Treasurybecause any nominal overflow of the economy would increase the burden of such commitments and increase the probability of default”. On the other hand, the banks acknowledge that the debt placement horizon has been shortened to a “quarterly or monthly” target And if that weren’t enoughswap subscription fell from 81% in August to 67% in January.
In recent days, another obstacle has been added: the refusal of the opposition to the debt conversion and the use of dollar-adjusted bonds or bonds with “unpayable” rates, such as dual bonds. 25 much better than what this government had when it started in terms of product”, Massa retorted this Saturday in an interview with CNN.
Worried about crossings, banks grouped in ADEBA Patricia Bullrich was asked on Friday for signals that there will be no default, as happened under the management of Mauricio Macri in 2019. Bullrich ratified that commitment on condition that Massa reduces the fiscal deficit and the monetary issue. “One can think about it only to the extent that this government is part of the task in the 10 months that remain to it,” they explained close to the presidential candidate.
In the banking sector they recognize that today there is greater “coordination” with the Central Bank which places an important floor on the percentages of debt renewal, added to the exchange rate, which contains dollarisation pressures. However, they also warn that “the problem with this strategy is that either the central bank or some institution with similar mechanisms, at the end of the day you end up with more pesos on the street.”
In the city they believe that the problem is not so much the deadlines or what the Treasury can offer, but that in the second half of the year “The next administration’s strategy will be questioned.”
AQ
Source: Clarin
