The trade deficit with Brazil reached $372 million in February, a 54.8% increase over the same month last year. Although exports grew by 19.2%, the increase in imports was greater: they increased by 27.5%. in the final result The impact of the drought was key: grain sales fell 25.6% year-over-year.
As detailed by consulting firm Abeceb last month, the the largest monthly bilateral trade deficit in the past 56 months (since June 2018). “Given the delicate situation in terms of central bank reserves, turn on the yellow light and expect more import adjustment,” they indicated.
Imports reached $1,317 million and exports added 944 million dollarsrespectively.
In the 27.5% jump in imports, growth in the automotive sector was key. Imports of “passenger cars” and “automotive parts and accessories” increased by 67.8% year-on-year and 45.7% year-on-year. Between both goods they accounted for 22.7% of imports from Brazil in February.
As in January, the purchase of “Iron or steel pipes, hollow sections and pipe fittings” recorded a remarkable growth – it went from $1.8 million in February 2022 to $47.6 million in the last month of last year-; is represented 3.6% of total imports from Brazil.
Exports grew by 19.2% in February and reached $944 million. “In this way they have shown a significant acceleration in the growth rate: in January they increased by a measly 3.4%; and in the last quarter of 2022 they decreased by 11%”, specifies Abeceb.
The export of “Cars” and “Vehicles for the transport of goods and special uses” grew respectively by 19.3% and 14.2%.
Both products accounted for 27% of total shipments in Brazil in February.
The only one of the products with the highest participation in the total whose export contracted in annual terms was “Wheat and rye, unmilled” -as in January-, down by 25.6% compared to February 2022. ” This decline is explained by the lower national production as a result of the drought and frosts that continue to persecute agriculture in Argentina”.
During the first two months, imports from Brazil reached 2,373 million US dollars, a jump of 20.0% year on year, while exports totaled 1,767 million US dollars, an increase of 11.2%.
Thus, the accumulated bilateral trade deficit in the first two months of the year reached $606 million against a decrease of $390 million in the first two months of 2022.
In this way you have to go back to the first two months of 2018 to find a higher commercial red -at the time it was 1,205 million dollars-“.
Abeceb’s prediction is that the year will close with a red similar to last year’s, which had been $2.250 million.
“One of the determining factors of the size of the bilateral trade red will be the level of BCRA reserves. This is because, given the mounting pressures on the Single Foreign Exchange Market (MULC) and the official refusal to make a discreet jump in the official exchange rate: l The only tool left to the government to correct the exchange imbalance is the tightening of restrictions on imports -in a delicate balance between taking care of reserves and not further slowing down of activity-“.
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Source: Clarin
