At one tenth of 100%. The Central Bank’s survey on market expectations indicates that most analysts estimate annual inflation of 99.9% for the whole of the current year. However, the top 10 consultancies that have better predicted this variant in the near term are likely to do so will cross 100%: will reach 102.9% by 2023.
Analysts have revised up their inflation expectations. In January they had estimated a monthly average of 5.6%, but now they see that variable closer to 6%, i.e. 0.4% higher than expected.
For February 2023 they estimate an increase of 6.1%. What does it imply a 0.6% increase from what was expected in January, when they estimated it at 5.5%. This also caused a 2.3% correction in the annual average, where they project 99.9%.
The top 10 that has had the most success in the short term are more pessimistic: the 102.9% they project for 2023 is 7.6% higher than the forecast they had made in January in this regard.
February’s Core CPI was projected at 6% for both the average and those with the most correct answers in the short term. REM participants revised up their core inflation forecasts for 2023 to 97.5% year-on-year. (2% higher than previous REM), and by 2024, at 87.9% year-on-year. (9.7% above the January survey),” the central bank’s report details.
Inflation would only fall by half (52%) in 2025.
“Those who analyze the evolution of the various economic variables have revised their inflation forecasts at a general level. Their short-term estimates indicate that the monthly inflation rate would have been 6.1% in the second month of the year, after registering a 6.0% change in January, while they project inflation of 6. 3% for March 2023. The expected changes for the following months imply an average inflation of 5.8% between March 2023 and August 2023”.
Analysts have corrected their inflation expectation for March, which was 6%, to 6.3%. Compared to April, they also raised what they expected, to 5.9%, when they estimated it at 5.8% in January.
The average monthly nominal wholesale exchange rate on business days was $191.89 per dollar in February 2023. REM responders’ forecast indicates a monthly increase of $10.78 (5.6% monthly) per dollar up to $202.67 per dollar in March 2023 The change versus December 2023 would be 91.1%, with one dollar at $330.4. “Compared to the previous observation, upward corrections were evident in almost every subsequent month (except March 2023). For their part, the analysts’ projection for December 2024 stood at $693.61 per dollar (109.9% year over year),” they note.
“Rem participants predict that the annual nominal interest rate (TNA) corresponding to fixed-term deposits of 30 to 35 days in private banks, of more than one million pesos, BADLAR average of February 2023 business days (69, 77% ) will increase by 18 basis points (69.95%) in March 2023. Compared to the previous survey, upward corrections have been made in the estimates collected for the coming months, up to July 2023. In December 2023, a level of 72.0%, which represents a 1.6% increase over the previous estimate.
Source: Clarin
