The soybean production projection for this campaign continues in free fall due to the drought. Now, the Buenos Aires Grain Exchange predicts that the oilseed crop will be 25 million tons, the lowest figure since the 2000/2001 campaign.
According to the latest report from the Buenos Aires institution, the weather was instrumental in the dramatic decline in soybean production. First of all, the drought that has hit us since June last year. later the early frosts in the month of February were added. And finally the latest heat wave that has hit the country since February 27, with temperatures exceeding 40 degrees.
Thus, forecasting very poor yields (lowest in 22 years) and significant losses of secondhand soybean acreage, the Buenos Aires Grain Exchange reduced the forecast to 25 million tons, a 42% decrease from the previous year. previous cycle.
If this number is confirmed, it will be the lowest since 2000/2001, the date the Buenos Aires Stock Exchange began disclosing the data. It will be even lower than the 2008/2009 cycle (32 million tons). well remembered by producers who were also badly affected by the drought.
The Rosario Stock Exchange also significantly lowered its soybean estimates last week to 27 million tons.
But it’s not just the drought and heat wave that have affected soybeans. Corn is also suffering the consequences. In the same report, the Buenos Aires Grain Exchange it lowered its harvest projections to 36 million tonsdown by 30% (16 million tons less) than those collected in the previous campaign.
This strong productive blow is already making itself felt in the regulation of exchanges in the countryside. Between January and February, according to data from the Chamber of the Petroleum Industry of the Argentine Republic, 1.5 billion US dollars were liquidated against almost 5 billion US dollars. for the same period in 2022. And just over $600 million has been cleared so far in March and there are only 12 business days left, so the number should also be low.
In this regard, the Rosario Stock Exchange has calculated that only in soybean, wheat and corn crops, which make up 87% of Argentina’s grain production and 43% of the country’s total exports, theLosses exceed $14,140 million.
This equals the total cost of planting the next 2023/24 crop to the farmer, according to the entity. If we add to this the lower demand for goods, labor and financial services, total losses to national economic activity reach $19,000 million. “The drought has already caused 3 points of Argentina’s estimated GDP for the year 2023,” the entity said.
Source: Clarin
