On Friday 14 April, INDEC will present the Consumer Price Index (CPI) for March. Private projections place it above 7%. This Monday, the EcoGo estimate was released, which anticipates inflation of 7.2% for the past month.
“Although the increase in food seems to have moderated this month after the strong increase who experienced meat in February, inflation is far from abating”they pointed out. For EcoGo, the food product was up 7.6% for the month.
In March, increases were recorded in virtually all regulated sectors: fuel (3.8%), subways (38%), private schools (16.3%), prepaid (7.66%), train and bus tickets 6%, taxis (30%), among others.
“In particular March is a month in which seasonality plays against and the start of classes together with the change of season push up categories such as education (17.3%) and clothing (7.8%).
“Meanwhile, the Fair Prices program continues to be in force and new products of all kinds continue to be added while fines and controls are tightened, with little or no results“, they pose.
GBA IPC Ecolatin also accelerated again in March. It was up 7.4% from February and adds 107.5% in the interyear measurement, consolidating the rebound recorded in the first two months.
The Ecolatine measure thus accelerated by 0.9 percentage points compared to February (6.6%) and recorded the highest monthly change since July 2022 (7.5%). AS, accumulated a 21.8% increase for the year, compared with a 14.9% increase in the first quarter of 2022.
The increase was tmainly divided by the Seasonal category (9.4%), in which Clothing (18%) and Fruit (6.1%) stand out, even if moderated by the decline in Vegetables (-4.5%). The Regulated segment grows by 7.7%, influenced by the increases in Gas (14.0%), Water (17.8%), Public Transport (14.7%), Cigarettes (8.6%), Telephone (7, 0%), Prepaid (5.3%) and Formal Education ( 24.5%).
For his part, him Core CPIwhich excludes seasonal prices or those with a high regulated component – and for this reason it is used as an indicator of the trend in the general price level- increased by 7%, decelerating by 0.5 percentage points compared to February. The moderation was mainly explained by the slowdown in Food & Beverage.
“The acceleration of inflation not only impacts on the need for the Government to recover some ‘political capital’ in view of the elections, but also generates greater pressure to accelerate peg crawling and raise interest rates, returning most unstable on stage”says Ecolatin.
The consultancy warns that “core inflation of around 7% in March will once again put pressure on the central bank in its next monetary policy rate decision (MPR): currently with an effective monthly rate of 6.5%, the ex post real interest rate for March would be negative for the second consecutive month“.
In the list of increases in April there are already prepaid cards, electricity, gas, fuel, domestic services, buses, trains and private schools, which I would set a floor of around 6%.
AQ
Source: Clarin
