In the last 9 months, imports have decreased by 17% and with this they add restrictions to the growth of the economy. With the impact of drought and a shortage of dollars, consultants are predicting it imports will be further reducedwhich renews the criticisms of entrepreneurs for the difficulties they encounter in bringing supplies into the country.
For the consulting firm Ecolatina, “short-term import restrictions limit the potential expansion of the internal market through a reduced availability of inputs and goods (in quantity and variety), exerting pressure on prices and/or delaying consumers’ purchasing decision”.
Import restrictions coexist with a growing debt that the state maintains with importers. Ecolatina specifies that this is the highest debt for imports of goods and services since 2003. «The stock of debt up to the third quarter of 2022 has grown $10.2 billion compared to the fourth quarter of 2021exceeding $40,000 million and we estimate it closed 2022 above $42,000 million.”
“This dynamic is unlikely to continue through 2023, limiting a tool to alleviate the impact of import restrictions,” they point out.
ACM says that deferred import payments in the first two months of 2023 amounted to 2,027 million dollars. “This landscape reflects a growing indebtedness to importers, which at some point will have to be paid off, even partially. As a resultfurther pressure on the goods deficit is expected later“, they raised.
Faced with this scenario, not even the proximity of the “3 soy dollar” could bring any relief on the external front. “There will be no room for a prolonged easing of import restrictions, quite the opposite.” postulates Ecolatina.
And he recalls that “the probable tightening of import restrictions – together with the direct impact of the collapse of agricultural production – will be one of the main drivers of the recession that the Argentine economy will experience in 2023″.
In this context, entrepreneurs are alert to the possibility of a deepening of the import trap and, at the same time, they are questioning the latest measures announced by the government, which force them to pay taxes in advance.
To increase funding in a recessionary environment, suspended a benefit that allowed large and medium-sized importers Avoid paying VAT and income tax.
The Argentine Industrial Union (UIA) has expressed its concern about the resolution of the AFIP.
According to estimates, Measure Implies $979 Billion in Corporate Finance Shortfall by 2023, Representing 1.1% of GDP in 2022. “The measure has a clear collection objective, affecting the competitiveness of production,” says the UIA.
Even from the Association of Entrepreneurs of Argentina have contested the measure. “The recent decision of AFIP (RG 5339) with which the already very high tax burden on the formal sector has increased again making it more expensive to supply imported goods and equipment. This implies an additional public burden for businesses”.
AQ
Source: Clarin
