The resurrection of the soy dollar we will have to wait after Easter. The Government will only start it at the end of next week for a 45-day period until the end of May. Thus, the new exchange regime with a value that could approaching $300 It will be valid for longer than the previous two versions, in a new attempt to add foreign currency in the face of accelerated reserve drainage and the impact of drought.
Sergio Massa will announce the measure this Wednesday ahead of the long weekend. The economy minister returned from Washington on Saturday, where he managed to loosen reserve accumulation targets and obtained IMF endorsement of a one-dollar reissue for campaigns to avoid a sudden devaluation or redeployment of the exchange rate. There, he advanced a dollar of soybeans for 30 days from this Monday and another one for regional economies for 90 days.
The tugs with the exporters, however, have imposed some changes in the last few hours. In official dispatches they know that planting has been delayed and that the first lots are showing worse yields than expected. For this reason, the latest projections reduce the soybean harvest for the current campaign to 20 million tons. This situation led the authorities to delay the start of the measure and to grant a longer term than initially foreseen.
The other front chasing the government is the falling revenues and falling supply of farm dollars waiting for a new incentive. According to the Chamber of the Petroleum Industry (CIARA), US$1,228.6 million was cleared last month, the second lowest March since 2020. In this context, the Central Bank has lost 259 million dollars this Wednesday and more than 3.2 billion dollars over the course of the year.
Massa aspires to cover that hole with the export of US$ 15,000 million between April and September, while in industry they expect a less propitious result. However, the level of the new soybean dollar remains to be determined. The idea is a value of 30 to 35% higher than Banco Nación’s official dollar to offset the 33% withholdings, which assumes an exchange rate of between $281 and $292, but the company is asking for a price above $300.
The minister is in a hurry to find an agreement. Since Thursday of last week, the grain market in Rosario was paralyzed by the expectation that a higher exchange rate would begin. The government reported that negotiations continued today and the cereal companies claim that Massa will take decisions “unilaterally”. The tensions are set against the backdrop of the worst drought in 60 years.
In the industry they project losses of 20,000 million dollars and are already preparing to import between 8 and 10 million tons of soybeans from Brazil. There are also spurts with regional economies, for which a lower exchange rate than that of soy is expected. The Government is focusing on those sectors whose products are mostly intended for export and do not affect the basic basket, such as peanuts and wine.
For analysts, the soybean dollar – the most relevant – will contribute between US$3,000 and US$5,000 million, a temporary relief that would be accompanied by greater import restrictions to hold foreign currency. It is that the Central Bank will buy agriculture dollars worth more than $280 and sell them to importers for $208. In the US, Massa has already announced changes to unify the tourist dollar with the services dollar and some imports.
Source: Clarin
