“The ads are a bunch of drowning“, defined the economist Andrés Borenstein, of Econviews, referring to the new edition of the soy dollar that the minister Sergio Massa announced this afternoon and which establishes a quote of $300 for exports cleared up to 31 May for oilseeds and up to 31 August for regional economies.
The measure has raised criticism in the agricultural sector and also among analysts. Borenstein warned that one of the risks of insisting on this path that Massa has already tried in September and December 2022 is that to cover a hole they create a bigger problem in the future. “Soybean producers, CIARA (the chamber of exporters) and regional economies will sell for $300, but what they’re selling now they won’t be selling in June or July,” so they will continue to lack foreign currency.
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“Another issue is the 90 peso difference between $300 and $210 at which the central bank will sell those dollars. If the central buys $10,000 million at this price, must issue 900,000 million dollars and this is inflationary”, Borenstein detailed.
And he added that regional products sold in this new dollar “will increase in price on the domestic market. Who will sell for $210 when they can export for $300? This adds more fuel to inflation and all this without solving anything. This move is just to improve the look of the April issues.”
For Gabriel Caamaño, from the Ledesma consulting firm, “Massa is mortgaging the immediate and mediated future, at the same time, so you don’t have to deal with a potential messy adjustment today. And even so, we’ll still pay a good portion of the nominal costs.”
“With each ad-hoc demerger there is a new jump in the issuance and remunerated liabilities of the BCRA, as well as the introduction of new relative price distortions in the supply chains. There is more inflation and more costs to stabilize more slowly in the future“Caamano said.
Mariano Sánchez Moreno, chief economist at Alphacast, noted that “just like release 1.0 in September and 2.0 in December, This kind of “masked” exchange rate evolution is short-sighted. It will help buy time and ‘get your head out of the water’ for the duration of the programme, if that happens. It does not solve the underlying problems or reduce volatility.”
“It’s kind of the same. It’s inconsistent because the dry spell is going to hit hard in the second and third quarter deals and that dollar flow is mortgaged to have it today. This exerts enormous direct and endogenous inflationary pressure“, concluded Sánchez Moreno.
For María Castiglioni, of the consultancy firm C&T, “although there are low stocks of soybeans, this will have an impactit will accelerate liquidation in the near term and will probably allow some reserves to be recomposed. But it will imply a high monetary emission. This assumes a deterioration of the central bank balance as previously occurred and further monetary absorption pressure. It will be very difficult for those pesos not to go to inflation“.
Juan Pablo Ronderos, founding partner of MAP, “this series of decisions It’s still a new patch for a completely destabilized macroeconomy that requires fundamental solutions.”.
“The measures will surely regain air. But only for a few weeks. Definitely around mid-May or early June we have an escalation of uncertainty and volatility again. Or maybe even earlier“.
AQ
Source: Clarin
