The new differential dollars for agriculture and the recent exchange rate adjustment, with a new modification for the “parking” for the purchase of cash with settlement, would give the Government the possibility to maintain “controlled” the exchange rate gap, at least until mid-year. However, in the municipality some warn that these effects “they would only be transient” and that inflation could put more pressure on the parallel exchange rate.
At the beginning of the week, the CNV announced a change to the parking regulations for the sale of cash securities in liquidation, made official this morning in the Official Gazette. For foreign sovereign bonds, an extra day is added and it becomes three days, while for local government and LED bonds, one day is subtracted and it becomes one day.
“With this measure, the government has askedencourage the use of species of local law so that the market takes them as a reference for exchange operations, instead of foreign law, while acquiring more firepower to intervene in financial dollars and, perhaps, tending to reduce the spread between legislations”, explained the analysts by Delphos.
This change has had an impact on the prices of financial dollars, which have cut 2.8% in the case of the MEP and 2, in the case of the CCL, so far this month. At the same time, in the first three rounds of the week, the Central Bank accelerated its daily rate of devaluation, bringing it close to 7% per month. As a result, the gap between the two prices is around 80%.
“The contractions that dollar shares are undergoing, driven by the measures of recent days and by exchange actions, cannot escape an accelerating official devaluation rate (not yet at the inflationary rate) and therefore narrows the gaps between these types of change “, they indicated in Aurum Valores.
“While this is positive, the short-term view of the measures means that, once again, these FX gap values become a minimum rebound range,” they warned.
“To the extent that pesos begin to appear on the market, when the Central Bank begins to buy the dollars that are liquidated, both soybeans and other products that are in the export increase programsome of those weights will press on the gap, although a large part of this flow will go to working capital and debt cancellation,” warned Anker’s Martín Vauthier in this regard.
“It is probable that there will be some pressure on financial dollars and in that case the government could intervene through the sale of bonds in hard dollars against pesos and this punishes the parity of bonds. This is somewhat what we have seen in recent days” , added the economist.
However, for the economist Martín Polo, from Cohen, the government manages with these measures to “gain some air” to maintain the gap between 80% and 90% until the primaries. “With this, the government gains some relaxation, at least for the next 45 days. The central bank will be able to start buying and this will ease the parallel market,” he said, although he warned: “After STEP, the road it will be more deserted where everything will depend on the result”.
Source: Clarin
