The tool that Sergio Massa has agreed with the IMF to stop the loss of reserves and recover funding has begun to give some results, even without clarifying the doubts. After commissioning by decree the soy dollar 3 last Monday, the delays generated crosses and accusations between the economic team, the producers, the grain companies and the banks.
The tensions were fueled by the first liquidations with a dollar at 300 dollars, which gave way on Wednesday a balance of US$93 million, 70% below of the 300 million US dollars cleared on average during the first day of soybean 1 and 2 dollar. Therefore, despite the increased supply of foreign exchange, the Central Bank could only hold 2 million US dollars in the foreign exchange market.
The low operational levels motivated different explanations in official offices. In the Ministry of Economy, they indicate three factors: the longest duration of the program (45 days for soy and 90 for regional economies), the the “speculation” on prices and “problems with the Central Bank”, in charge of regulating bank accounts to be liquidated.
Despite its low use in previous releases, the government ordered the opening of related dollar accounts on Monday and the body chaired by Miguel Pesce has instructed financial institutions in recent hours on how to credit funds for soy dollar sales . The first account was opened on Tuesday and four more were expected this Wednesday, nearly the bulk of most grain companies.
In one bank they had to make changes and explain them to large companies, including those of regional products, who asked questions: “There are new clauses and they have been analyzed with Legal, the peculiarity is that the account is now adjusted daily to the linked dollarAnd in another institution they have lowered the price to the accounts: “There have been no openings because they have not been requested”.
In the Ministry of Agriculture have noticed delays in registration by AFIP so that exporters can access the dollar differential, while the collection agency awaits the ok of said agency and the Secretary of Commerce. The latter would regulate this Thursday the incorporation of regional economies to the farm dollar and price agreements.
What is the price of soy?
behind the misunderstanding, the bitter price fight between producers and grain companies appears to be the main obstacle for the soybean dollar. Last week, when Sergio Massa made the announcement, exporters paid $90,000 per ton of soybeans to Rosario at an exchange rate of $211, about $426, but this Wednesday they paid up to $95,000 to $300, about $316.
“Ask the grain companies Why did soybeans decline from Wednesday to today? no one will sell to switch to pesos, the liquidation will be well below the $5 billion they expect”said a farm operator, who compared the supply with 1 and 2 dollar soybeans, when in the first 15 days the price collapsed until the supply was cut and dollars appeared.
In the export sector they believe that the collapse of the ton in dollars is due to the increased availability for the new campaign, even when production is very low due to severe drought. “When the harvest comes, the market price always goes down, it used to be very expensive and the international price not enough to pay more“, they emphasized in the industry.
“The drop in price is due to the fact that in January-March the value of soybeans was “inflated”. Now harvesting with the soybean dollar, exporters want to buy at values that are advantageous for their margins, taking advantage of the fact that the exchange rate does not seriously affect the peso value of soybeans,” said economist Salvador Vitelli, by Romano Group.
The insider thwarts Massa’s plans to avoid a devaluation. The minister departed Wednesday for his trip to Washington, without being able to score a significant rebound in bookings face negotiation with the IMF, where they approved the agriculture “subsidy” and a relief in targets after noting the loss of $5.8 trillion in net reserves for the year.
The initial expectation was to enter $9,000 million for the soybean dollar, but now they don’t rule out whether it’s US$7,000 million or even US$5,000 million. These currencies are essential to face the relay race that the government has ahead of it, starting with the payment of $650 million to the IMF this Friday, the next review of the organization and the formalization of the nominations in June.
Source: Clarin
