The battle against the dollar will open another chapter this Tuesday when new foreign exchange restrictions are released. They will come into force from tomorrowControls that restrict the purchase of cash with settlement (CCL) to those who have taken credit (guarantee or pass), while brokerage firms (ALYCS) can only purchase CCL or MEP in a parallel wheel called Senebi (Bilateral trading segment).
The measure ordered by the CNV has generated several readings on the market. On the one hand, it is expected that deflate the question cash transactions with leveraged liquidity guarantee, a credit instrument used by traders and investors to finance their transactions with pesos, dollars or securities. But also will multiply parallel prices, with the incorporation of the “Senebi” dollar, at a more expensive price.
The Central Bank on Thursday raised rates and the equity bond by 74% to 78% a year in pesos (a rate of 6.4% a month). In recent days there have been leveraged operations in pesos with that financial cost (and reached peaks of 20% per annum in dollars). That means investors who took that peso credit on Friday to buy CCL or MEP between $444 and $453 were financed for free if the parallel rises 6.4% ($472 and $481).
“Last week the BCRA with the rate hike raised the cost of taking pesos through bonds in the stock market. Now directly, cut the operation. They try to prevent the market from asking for pesos at a monthly rate of 7.6% (91% TNA) and with those pesos buying CCL (Friday closing at $444), which would give a “CCL dollar bought with borrowed pesos of $477 ($444 * 1.076%). This measure it should take the pressure off the formal and legal financial dollar (MEP or CCL),” said economist Fernando Marull.
The other impact they expect on the market is the proliferation of financial dollars, contrary to the IMF’s recommendation to unify exchange rates. Is that from this Tuesday the agents or intermediaries will not be able to operate as before via screen or Price Priority Time (PPT) and must negotiate in transactions where the price agreed between the parties and which for analysts implies an operation “less transparent”.
The measure comes after the bond market intervention with at least up to 100 million dollars in reserves. “It is to continue to impose stocks, more restrictions and complications in the operation. Like the dollar to which he started trading, they have intervened, as it is necessary to control the price, the amounts skyrocket, so they make these restrictions to moderate the operation on the screen,” said economist Salvador Vitelli.
In this way, according to the analyst, the operations are aimed at a market less accessible to the public, which at one point showed as much as a 30% gap to the screen dollar. The CCL on Senebi closed at $443 on Friday with the Global 203 (GD30C), two pesos higher than the PPT, at $441. The expectation now is that the gap in the bilateral segment widens.
“Back to the gap of the gap? The last time they did something like this (not the same) the SENEBI (OTC) implied GD30 CCL was +20% ahead of the PPT. Today’s money (CCL 453) if that maximum gap occurred would be $546… Let’s try to do the same thing, it will work for us!” said Juan Pablo Albornoz, economist at Invecq.
It is not yet clear if the changes it will impact blue, which closed higher at $469 on Friday. Some operators argue that it should not affect this price because the restrictions would mainly concern investors operating in the formal market.
Source: Clarin
