Dollar soybean 3: they warn that the liquidation is weak and will not reach the 5,000 million dollars expected

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From the beginning of soybean 3 dollar, the liquidation of this added mechanism $1,857 million. There are 17 working days left for this system, which allows soy to get 300 pesos for every dollar paid, and Sergio Massa’s team’s goal is to adding $5,000 million this way seems unattainable.

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To achieve this goal, the daily liquidation would need to reach $150 million. For the past three weeks, just this Thursday…when US$153 million was liquidated- that threshold has been crossed.

Specialists warn that this way will be achieved in 3,500 and 4,000 million dollars through May 31, between 25 and 20% less than that calculated by the Ministry of the Economy.

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“Soybeans are very weak,” says Fernando Marull, director of FMyA. “The key is that the 300 peso price was low. Due to the drought, the harvest is worse than expected and given the uncertainty, the producer prefers to keep the grains.”

When the soy dollar launched on April 10, cash with liquid was trading at $404, 44 pesos below the current level. Since then all dollars, including the official one, have gone up between 10 and 12%, and the $300 of this program has remained intact.

Marull’s estimate is that $3 soybeans will contribute $4,000 million. In this scenario “there are producers who have sold because they need money and those who are a little further behind will be able to continue to sell little”.

“Why does this change you have to put a higher price and there they can accelerate sales, but under these conditions it seems to me that we will not reach the 5 billion dollars,” adds Marull.

“They arrive safely at 3,500 million dollars”, claims the economist Salvador Di Stéfano. And he says amid the uncertainty, producers choose to sell future soybeans through November and discount that value with a check, which gives them a better price than the $300 per dollar offered by the government.

“The field is selling into the future to get a better price. The problem is, the government doesn’t know the futures markets. In between other producers prefer to wait for soybean 4 dollar. To unblock it, the best thing would be to lower withholding taxes from 33% to 20%,” says Di Stéfano.

Pablo Repetto, economist at Aurum Values, points out that to achieve to $3.5 billion they should sell some 6 million tons of soybeans. “Since the beginning of the programme, 2.7 million tons have been sold. In other words, in the 17 working days until the end of May, the pace of sales recorded so far should be roughly maintained.”

Repetto warns that due to the rise of the dollar in official and informal markets, “as the days go by, the incentive to sell decreases and I’m waiting for a new edition that improves the prices”.

Despite the few results, So far, the government has shown no signs of price improvement in the remainder of this soybean dollar issue, or withholding adjustments.

Despite the fact that soy dollar settlement rallied on Thursday, it wasn’t enough to break the selling streak by central banks, which have already sold currencies for six straight rounds. and May got off on the wrong foot, with losses of $276 million in three days.

Therefore, the difficulties persist in replenishing the power plant’s reserves. Added to this is the liquidation of part of the regional economies, which also have access to a preferential dollar, hits $50 million in the three weeks it went into effect. This variant, even with the dollar at $300, will be valid until August 31st and it aims to raise another $4 billion.

Within the regional economies are wine, vegetables, animal feed preparations, fresh fruit, mutton, fish, grass, rice and peanuts, among other products. Market analysts indicate this there is little interest from manufacturers to join. The reason is that to enter this “agro dollar” they have to complete a series of procedures which make it difficult for them to register and also join the Fair Prices program, which implies a price freeze until the end of August.

Source: Clarin

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