in the field of massive consumption, the incidence of inflation, which affects local shops more strongly than in large chains, has had its correlate in sales in those channels. In April, Self-service shops and neighborhood businesses suffer a new decline of 8.7% and so they came to tenth consecutive month with negative indicators.
In supermarkets, on the other hand, where the Right Price policy and card promotions continue to drive demand, sales grew in the same period, 9.4%.
Averaged across all channels, mass consumption closed the fourth month of the year with a drop of 0.3%, leaving the annual cumulative at -0.6%, according to data kept by the consulting firm Scentia.
“Although the difference in behavior between the channels is repeated, this time the positive of the supermarket channel was not enough to neutralize the decline of independent supermarkets,” said Osvaldo del Rio, head of consultancy.
According to the latest measurements, all baskets were positive especially in supermarkets alcoholic beverages, unlike the self-services, where everyone tested negative, especially Cleaning, Hygiene and Cosmetics.
The weighted average price as measured by the advisor has continued to accelerate and is already over 106% year-over-year. Also in the latest INDEC measurement, the food and drink category rose above the general inflation average, which recorded a record 8.4% per month.
If consumer behavior is analyzed in terms of propensity to buy by region, Scentia data demonstrates that the interior of the country outperformed AMBA.
This situation largely reflects the increased sales in border towns, due to the large difference in prices compared to neighboring countries. Thus, while in the AMBA there was a drop of 4.5%, in the indoor stores recorded an increase of 2.6%.
Beyond the gondolas
Another private indicator of consumption that includes other goods and services, in addition to supermarket purchases, such as that of the Argentine Chamber of Commerce and Services (CAC), recorded a 1.5% increase in April compared to the same month last year.
The progress of this index in April places household consumption at a level similar to that observed in the same month of 2019 (pre-pandemic) but 5% lower than that of 2018.
However, “although in seasonally adjusted terms the series marked a fourth consecutive increase, the seasonal adjustment of the month of March and April was affected by the quarantine that began in that month of 2020”, the institution clarified that, moreover, He expects negative numbers for the month of May.
“Expectations on the evolution of the index in the coming months they are not positivelargely because the purchasing power of households, which shows a no lesser level of correlation with that of consumption, went into negative territory eight months ago. In this context, it is unlikely that households will be able to sustain consumption in a context of such fragility”, states the Cac.
However, the analysis points to it the increase in consumption is due to the fact that consumers’ savings have been reduced to a minimumn, mainly because ambitious middle-class assets (real estate, foreign travel, cars) the incentive to save decreases and, in the process, consumption levels increase.
Furthermore, because “the rapid reduction of household debt frees up resources for consumption. Without mortgage or lien credit and with limits on credit cards that systematically grow below inflationHe household debt reduction is forced“, the agency explained in a statement.
According to this measurement, the element of clothing and footwear shown in April at estimated 10% drop on an annual basis as well as housing, rents and utilities, decreased by 5%. But, as a counterpart, the chapter of transport and vehicles showed an estimated 10% growth due to the good performance of patents, both cars and motorcycles.
In these polarities also presented by consumption recreation and culture it still shows significant growth rates with an estimated 16% year-on-year lead.
Source: Clarin
