The soybean dollar 3 proved to be less effective than previous versions, albeit with some acceleration of liquidations in recent days. They were cleared through the soy complex $3,534 million And there are only three working days left. Hence, the goal of the collection $5 billion with oilseed currencies it is clouding and Minister Sergio Massa has to look for another alternative to collect the green banknotes.
The effectiveness of the 3 soybean dollar to supply foreign currency to the Central Bank in the midst of drought devastation has been modest. The Central Bank managed to capture 24% of the liquidated fundscompared to 74% who bought 2 soybeans in the dollar and 65% in the first version.
The 3 soy dollar will be valid until May 31st. Offers soybeans $300 pesos per dollar, while the wholesaler is trading at $235 today. Although rumors have appeared in recent days that the program could be extended, the official offices say that will not happen.
The president of the Argentine Republic’s Chamber of Petroleum Industry and the Center for Grain Exporters (CIARA-CEC), Gustavo Idígoras, told TN that the Ministry of Economy has informed them that the 3 soybean dollar will not extend further than its expiration,
“It was decided not to extend the agricultural dollar for soybeans. Even exporters don’t want it to spread. It is a headache in which the industry always loses”, assured the entrepreneur.
Although exporters supported the entry program, the soybean 3 dollar was losing interest as financial dollars rose. “The program incentives dilute as the days go by, being whats$300 was initially 42% higher than the wholesale exchange rate, but is now only 29% higher, and the jump in financial prices complicates it even more. In the beginning, the agricultural dollar implied 25% less than cash with liquidity, while now it is 37% lower”, they specify from Fundación Capital.
Will there be a fourth round?
With dollar shortage as a permanent condition, the market assumes that there will be $4 worth of soybeans, even if the Ministry of the Economy does not issue a pledge on the matter.
After three versions of the soybean dollar so far under Sergio Massa’s administration, exporters are already operating under the belief that They will only sell when the exchange rate improves.
The analyst Salvador Di Stéfano predicts it soybean dollar 4 will be released in the middle of next month. “I think in the second half of June they will roll out the soybean dollar to catch up with PASO in a better position,” she says.
“The situation is so precarious that It would not be strange if a new window opens in July/August especially considering the exports of by-products such as soybean oil or cake/pellets,” says Pablo Repetto, from Aurum Valores.
The announcement of the next version of the soy dollar will depend on the government’s ability to obtain foreign currency by other means. “First the government will evaluate what will happen with China and the IMFDiStefano says.
How much should 4 soybeans be worth? For DiStefano the minimum should be $350 — 16% more than a 3 dollar soy — and the ideal, $400.
Economist Salvador Vitelli notes that the odds that there is a dollar of soybeans or a dollar of corn have been circulating in the last few hours.”are inversely proportional to the weakness of the central bank’s exchange rate. At the moment this weakness is quite considerable considering that net reserves are negative.”
Although in the second part of the month the Central Bank reversed the sales trend that had been manifesting daily since April on the foreign exchange market and managed to add a positive balance of US$307 million, these contributions are not sufficient to reverse the negative result of US$ 1.75 billion of net reserves,
«It is very probable that the dynamics of exchange rates will end up forcing the generation of another differential exchange rate, especially if there is no disbursement from the IMF. For now it would seem that the possibility of a disbursement exists», remarks Vitelli.
The Government continues negotiations with the IMF on the advance for June of the disbursements for $10.8 billion. And at the same time, Minister Sergio Massa will go to China next week to obtain an extension of the exchange with that country which will allow him to have at least $5 billion to be used for imports.
But even if Massa manages to pull one more rabbit out of the hat, with electoral uncertainty shuffling his pockets, the accounts would continue to be in the red and the minister will have to continue sharpening his pencil to obtain foreign currency.
Source: Clarin
