The purchase and sale of properties is still below the levels of other years, practically half of the transactions are carried out – per month – compared to 2018. Among other things, due to the exchange rate, the non-existence of the mortgage credit, which in 2022 represented just 0.2% of GDP and because the income of the population in dollars is at very low levels.
Moreover, New obstacles have recently been added.: the recent run of the exchange rate in April and the electoral climate, which tends to postpone the decisions of the population. However, there is an air of optimism in the real estate sector regarding an incipient recovery. The reason?, property prices had to fall to unlock sales. However, the number of homeowners is decreasing while the number of renters is increasing. Owners have dropped by seven percentage points over the past 12 years, according to the latest INDEC data on housing conditions. Only 65.5% of homes are owned by the occupants themselves.
From movement in the real estate sectorSoledad Balayan, owner of Maure Inmobiliaria, says that “the market experienced a moderate spring from the middle of last year until the recent currency crisis in April. Because sky-jumping and proximity to PASO suspended decisions about buying and selling real estate,” she says.
“We could say that the real estate market would have bottomed out and would have started towards a slight recovery,” adds Veronica Pagola, CEO of Century 21 Argentina. And he explains: “in the last two years we have recorded a very significant growth in the world money supply, where certain investments gave higher returns than those produced by the real estate market, a circumstance that no longer occurs today and consequently the real estate attracts attention, for be a safe and profitable market,” he says.
In his experience, the market today has a lot of movement, but exclusively from what is found at market value, this is because it is the purchasing public who defines how much they are willing to pay. Many of the sellers today are selling for less than what they were paying for their property 4 or 5 years ago,” he says.
Also for Federico Hornos, senior broker of Gustavo De Simone Real Estate Solutions, the market for both buying and selling is active. “Although we are in a scenario with many sellers and few buyers due to the inability to buy, mortgage access restrictions, the rent law and dollar equities have a direct impact on prices as due to the large offer on the market the values are declining”, he confirms. And he points out that in the neighborhoods of Recoleta, Palermo, Monserrat and San Telmo it was where the demand increased the most in recent times due to the fact that buyers allocate these properties to temporary rentals. “Due to a key factor such as the rising dollar, we were forced to do new analyzes with our customers to lower prices and unlock operations,” she confessed.
The latest statistics from the College of Notaries of the City of Buenos Aires showed a 7% increase in the number of deeds (2750) in April compared to the same month last year, but a 4% contraction compared to March.
AS, in the first four months of the year there was an increase in operations of 17% compared to the same period of 2022: went from 7,870 to 9,210 writes. Even if they are few, if compared with those of 2018, the last year with mortgage loans, when more than 20,000 properties were surveyed in the first quarter.
From look developer, Horacio Ludigliani points out that “despite all the political and economic problems, construction is a tangible investment that contrasts with the stock market. Investors expect the problem to be more political than economic, and as electoral lists form they are taking sides. It is a market in which one must anticipate. When it’s already a business, it’s already too late since the purchase of the land and the creation of the permits take at least six months”, he points out from his architect’s point of view.
As for the evolution of real estate prices, Balayan also points out that “in recent times it has been necessary to lower the rate to unblock the operations. “The closing prices of the deals experienced a small rebound in the first months of the year due to this spring and the stability of the exchange rate which could be seen as a lag in the exchange rate. This exchange rate lag (all prices rose month-on-month except the dollar) coupled with the sharp drop in real dollar prices, which reached 42% according to ROI data (record real estate deals), made it attractive the purchase of real estate. some real estate in the City of Buenos Aires,” he commented.
According to an April survey by the portal ZonaProp, a studio apartment in CABA has a value of US $94,235, one with two rooms and 50 m2. reaches US $ 113,515 and one of three rooms and 70 m2., US $ 159,258.
The neighborhoods with the highest prices are Puerto Madero (USD 5,652 per m2), Palermo (USD 2,916) and Belgrano (USD 2,708). Conversely, the most accessible districts are Lugano (1,035 USD per m2), Nueva Pompeya (1,385 USD) and La Boca (1,449 USD).
According to Ludigliani’s experience, “for the moment the market is operating downwards and closing values are usually 15% to 20% of what appears on real estate portals. In the case of second-hand, there are usually more offers aggressive,” he says.
Another aspect regarding the characteristics of the current marketing, adds Fernando Pozzi, partner of the real estate agency of the same name which operates in the Tigre area, is that of closing hours of operations. “We are on average between 4 and 6 months to reach the reserve. Since we started 2023 we’ve been noticing that the times for the authorization to sell are getting longer. Last year we were able to close a deal in four months and today we are at an average of six months,” he adds.
Regarding business expectations towards 2024, Soledad Balayan points out: “every election year has shown signs of ‘wait and see what happens’ before jumping into buying or selling a property unless there are specific reasons to rush a decision. real estate transaction,” he says.
The expert believes that “shares are the symptom of a sick macroeconomy that infects the real estate market and prevents it from taking off. Dollar construction costs have skyrocketed, so there wouldn’t be much room for real estate prices to fall further, at least in the construction sector. However, in the second-hand sector there is still a segment of large properties to recycle that are not in demand and still have room for lower prices. The exchange rate and political uncertainty probably play a big role in slowing down the number of trades,” he says.
According to Pagola, “in view of the coming months, looking ahead to the electoral period, we are going through uncertainty and volatility as usual, but with the particularity of an ever deeper trend towards faster adaptability to changes,” he says.
“During the second half of 2023 and the first half of 2024 there will be political instability, relative price volatility in the economy and an inflationary environment in pesos. Nothing different from the context of recent years, so we estimate that demand will remain in line with what has happened up to now, i.e. by recovering and maintaining a similar volume of operations”. Pozzi believes that “every electoral year produces a general stalemate and in the next 2, 3 months it will be very complex because those who are liquid and do not need to position themselves will not do it, maybe they will wait”. The employer believes it It’s not just a price issue, but a lack of expectations or a lack of trust in this type of government. In this sense, according to his vision, the change in expectations will take place when we know who the new president will be, what the model to follow will be, what the policy will be and what incentives he will have for his activity.
Source: Clarin
