The opposition of Together for Change entered in the last hours in a concordat frenzy that once again tests the armed capability of its leaders.
The pre-election dizziness forces this Monday to convene a summit of the caciques of Together for the change, to get out of the state of secret deliberation that compares two styles.
On one side, the agreement of the Larreta-Carrió-Morales wing which understands that politics must build consensus and representation. On the other, the Macri wing, of which Patricia Bullrich is a representative on earth. claims politics as a territory of intransigence and regenerationism.
Some try to test the resilience of the coalition to broaden the coalition. The others understand the task as the exercise of a leadership that tries to drag the electorate along by cutting differences, signaling the opponents.
Seeking to polarize, he reflects on temperamental elements such as the conviction in the face of the lukewarmness of those whose hands are shaking, necessary to carry out an agenda that the Macri government did not dare to pursue between 2015-2019.
The point of contention is now whether to admit a council with Juan Schiaretti’s project and non-Christian Peronismand how to formalize the entry of José Luis Espert as a presidential candidate.
Whether or not Monday’s summit succeeds or fails will indicate whether this opposition force, which has already won the election on paper, is capable of turning the promise of the polls into reality at the polls.
The table agreement
Since Wednesday, the first level of JxC leadership has gone underground to settle issues that are expected to be resolved in just over a week.
The UCR has a national convention on June 12, within two Mondays, and on the 14th, two days later, the parties must put the covenants in writing. I am so many themes and so many interests that pass through uncertainty and that must have an endanything, in record time.
The main question that JxC must resolve is whether it admits that it enters into understanding with sectors of non-Christian Peronism, with Juan Schiaretti at the helm. If that idea thrives, it will have to decide whether there is effective coalition enlargement, or whether it will close any post-STEP compromises.
In the first of the alternatives, the Cambiemos table should allow the entry of Juan Schiaretti, Florencio Randazzo, Juan Manuel Urtubey, Diego Bossio and others to contest the primaries on August 13th.
This instance will fail. Schiaretti imagines other formats. The second question is whether to bring Espert into the coalition as a pre-candidate for the presidency. Instead, Bullrich would like him as a candidate for something in Buenos Aires. This extension has the support of Larreta, Morales, Carrió, Gustavo Valdés, Abad, Facundo Manes.
Macri’s veto capacity is limited: how will he oppose an agreement with his friend Schiaretti if he was the first to bring it to Pichetto.
“I don’t call Macri”
The picture of this rapprochement was described by Schiaretti to a group of bankers who received him on Thursday at the Association of Argentine Banks, where he participated with Diego Bossio and deputy Carlos Gutiérrez. He explained it participates in the idea of the front of fronts to bury Christianity, but that the coalition must be closed before the electoral process, not after. This puts pressure on the timing between now and June 14th.
He underlined the need to summon the best in politics, as in 2001, when it was possible to leave the country due to a shared task between Peronism and radicalism. They asked him if Macri shares the idea and he replied: “I’m too old to be anyone’s employee. I won’t call Macri.”
It was recognition from a certain distance, but it is public that if there is anyone Macri does not want in Córdoba it is Luis Juez, candidate for governor. On dollarization, Schiaretti said it is a miraculous solution. At this point he remembered having worked with Domingo Cavallo but now it does not claim convertibility or dollarization.
The theory of susto as an electoral factor
The toughest bones in this attempt to broaden the coalition are Macri and Bullrich. Macri resists any independence step that Larreta takes and even less if it involves questioning Bullrich’s candidacy. She says she has polls indicating Patricia above Larreta in several districts and that she will win the PASO de Cambiemos.
He detailed that perception Tuesday during a lunch he had with about 20 businessmen in the lunch room of the Censys company, in the Altercity industrial complex in Tucumán.
According to Macri, the best result will be obtained by Javier Milei in PASO, (not necessarily a winner) because public opinion will support him to resolve pending conflicts with the government, the opposition and other institutions. This outcome will cause a political race like the one he underwent when he lost PASO in August 2019.
But in the first round the public, frightened, will react rationally to the possibility of a deepening of the crisis, and will support Cambiemos, aka Bullrich. This presumption rests on the prejudice that the public changes its vote, when it can be demonstrated that the membership of political families usually does not change: Peronism 30/32, non-Peronism 40/42, rain or shine, with Gardel or Frankenstein of candidates. Gardel and Frankenstein ruled us. There must be a reason.
The result depends on the distribution of representation of the rest of the electorate. Loses who divides. It does not appear that neither Juntos por el Cambio nor the Frente de Todos will split in this election period.
Larreta opened her home to Morales and Schiaretti
The initiative to broaden the coalition recalls the debate that took place in 2018/9 between Cambiemos and the Córdoba table which included Schiaretti, Urtubey, Sergio Massa, Roberto Lavagna and Miguel Pichetto.
That relationship was frayed by Massa’s migration to Christianity, the cast dispersed, and only Pichetto had the audacity to be Cambiemos’ vice-presidential candidate with Macri at the helm.
This time the rapprochement takes place through the non-Macrista Cambiemos, despite Schiaretti having a close relationship with Macri. Schiaretti met secretly on Wednesday with Horacio Rodríguez Larreta and Gerardo Morales at the home of the Buenos Aires head of government. They discussed the terms of the rapprochement without reaching any definitive format. “We talked about everyone and everything,” the three acknowledged as they left that meeting which in a few hours became known to other leaders.
On Friday, Macri was the subject of a debate with Patricia Bullrich and others around her, on whose attitude the success of the summit promoted by Morales for this Monday depends.
Córdoba has to pay the deal
The meeting of the three looks like the keystone of an agreement that would put the opposition at a competitive level to the point of speculate on a victory in the first round of elections.
Schiaretti governs the second province by number of votes and shares the electorate which expresses both non-Christian Peronism and Macrism. In that constituency, Schiaretti has already included PRO leaders such as Javier Pretto, who will run as deputy mayor of the provincial capital, on the list of Schiarettismo.
Much remains to be resolved in Córdoba, such as the relationship of the local government party with Luis Juez, and, above all, the role of Mario Negri, head of the radical bloc in Deputies and leader of the opposition in the Chamber.
The reproach against Schiaretti is that he comes to seek an agreement after having imposed an electoral calendar in his province that meets his convenience. If you want a bargain, it has a price.
For example, make a single list of candidates for national deputies headed by Negroes and with positions acceptable to the Radicals of weight in that province.
Another is to deliver the election of the mayor of the capital to Rodrigo de Loredo. Morales was with Negri on Thursday morning at a breakfast in the capital where he recounted his conversation with Schiaretti and Larreta. He went to Corrientes where he spoke with Gustavo Valdés, the radical with the best relations with Macri, but who is hesitant to turn his support to Patricia Bullrich. In the meeting he had with Larreta, he was shown the results of a poll in his province which places Horacio 8 points above Patricia.
Larreta and Santilli owe Carrió an invoice
That same Thursday evening, Larreta and Diego Santilli gathered at the El Mirasol grill of the Tortugas Mall complex, a restaurant in Pilar, halfway between Capilla del Señor and the Capital, to speak with Elisa Carrió. The head of the Coalition has a bill to collect the understanding with which he agreed to lower his support for Fernán Quirós so that Jorge Macri is the unitary candidate of Cambiemos in the CABA.
From that meeting – which was attended by the president of the Coalition Maxi Ferraro and Larreta’s campaign manager, Fernando Di Benedetto – issues emerged to be included in Monday’s meeting of the Cambiemos table.
One of them is to impose that in all districts there are unit lists of deputies and senators, which can be hung with presidential candidates in the PASO and, in Buenos Aires and CABA, which vote on the same date as the national vote those, of the candidates governors.
This is a moot point, why Larreta accepted the candidacy of his cousin Jorge in exchange for not sharing Santilli’s ticket with the sectors that support Patricia Bullrich in Buenos Aires. That resistance is one of the guises for negotiating unity that all who participate in this round of reconciliation of positions sing.
The idea of having unified votes is supported by Ernesto Sanz – claiming the method he imposed in 2015 to seal the agreement for the creation of Cambiemos – Larreta, Morales, Carrió, Manes and Abad. This leader is one of the most urgent for time, because on Saturday the UCR of Buenos Aires had to comply with the convention procedure.
the root swarm
The same Thursday Morales met with Abad, head of radicalism in Buenos Aires with differences. the jujeño He ran with 75 candidates for mayor of Buenos Aires that drove Abad crazy. She also complains that Patricia Bullrich plays it like hers, when she hasn’t defined anything and argues for the need for the UCR to have its own presidential candidate.
Morales met about forty radical leaders and legislators in his Viale Belgrano offices to whom he explained the still gassy scope of the rapprochement with Schiaretti.
He discussed this possibility with the group that included Gustavo Posse – Abad’s internal opponent -, Julio Martínez, Ricardo Buryaile, Mario Fiad, José Cano and Silvia Giacoppo.
The day ended with Posse, Mauricio D’Alessandro, Juan Pedro Tunessi, Walter Carusso and other leaders from the small town of Navarro. in a long after dinner other details about this coalition expansion have escaped.
Pichetto, on tour in Pehuajó, was already aware of this streak of encounters. He discussed this possibility of expanding the coalition with Randazzo, with whom he has re-established relations. He also met Bossio, Schiaretti’s campaign manager, who is simultaneously in dialogue with Manes through the economist Martín Rapetti. This professional is Bossio’s partner in Equilibra consultancy and is in turn the main consultant of the neurologist in this economic matter.
AQ
Source: Clarin
