In the first round of 2024, the blue dollar fell by 20 pesos and ended in $1,005. The MEP dollar also collapsed and ended higher $986 . The only rebound among alternative dollars came from cash with liquidity, which advanced to $993.5.
At the beginning of the new year the foreign exchange market remained calm, with the official dollar rising $810which brings the gap with the blue dollar to 24% and with the CCL to 22%.
“The currency gap had a very strong squeeze. The decline was, to a lesser extent, “upward” (CCL initially contained and then declining due to better long-term expectations) and, to a greater extent, “downward” , given the decent jump in the official exchange rate of 118%. A record devaluation with nominal value launched and a gap practically disappeared are sufficient proof of the initial anchoring of the plan,” note from Portfolio Personal Inversions (PPI).
With the start of the new year, the looming question is how long exchange rate stability will be maintained. This Monday, the official exchange rate recovered to 0.3% and The government insists it plans to increase it by just 2% this monthdespite inflation being around 30% in December and set to record similar numbers in January.
“He creeping picket 2% monthly is the only type of nominal anchoring available to the economic programeven if it is far from significant in the face of an ultra-negative interest rate in real terms”, underline from Portfolio Personal Inversions (PPI).
“The strategy of the economic team, rather than initially successful, consists in putting a nominally “high” weight rate. (between 8% and 9% monthly) which forces exporters to liquidate (i.e. to make financial leverage more expensive) and to invest in pesos”, they specify.
Although the new government has drastically lowered the peso rate and brought it into negative territory in the face of inflation, it still remains positive in the face of the expected rise in the official dollar, which would encourage exporters to part with the foreign currency.
This partly explains why the Central Bank purchased $2,954 million from the devaluation, including $89 million acquired in the first round this year. From the PPI they escape that even if this strategy is bearing fruit in the short term “There will be some noise soon.”
The seasonal peak in money demand in December and January is expected to end soon. Consequently, “starting from the second half of January the exchange rate gap would tend to widen both “under” (crawling well below inflation) and “above” (rising CCL). This scenario would be risky for a BCRA that remains focused on “liquefying” pesos.
Source: Clarin
