It is already obvious that the data of December inflation will be around 30%. If confirmed, accumulated through 2023 it would reach 200%. The numbers are cold data, sometimes it is difficult to measure them, but in this case it is enough to take a walk in any hypermarket, supermarket or flea market to make these records tangible.
But what happened during 2023. During the year the price change reached figures that had not been recorded for 20 years. Even if the Ministry of Economy, chaired by Sergio Massa, expected it an annual inflation of 60%, That percentage was left behind last September.
On Wednesday the government acknowledged that inflation in the previous month (which will be officially known on January 11) will be very high. “We understand The problem of inflation is one of the great battles we have to fight. and that we are giving, and we know very well how to end inflation, but it is a long process,” presidential spokesman Manuel Adorni said.
Hours later, at dawn, President Javier Milei also expressed his opinion on the issue: “The causes of inflation are not, as is often said, multiple and complex, but simply the result of excessive money printing.”we read in the quote published in the report of the “Austrian School of Economics”.
Milei concluded that sentence with his comment: “A sentence according to the Argentine reality, We must not forget that we have had 23 years of high inflation and that the inflation we are experiencing comes exclusively from the previous government.”
What happened to inflation in 2023
In 2023, month-over-month inflation was: 6% in January; in February 6.6%; in March 7.7%; and in April 8.4%. Then came three months of contraction: May 7.8%; June 6% and July 6.3%; to start the journey upwards again. August saw a jump of 12.7%, which attempted to correct itself with October’s 8.3%. Finally, November saw the highest percentage increase of the year: 12.8%.
December was a month characterized by strong inflation (the data will be known in a few days), which was also affected by the change of government, which applied a Devaluation of 54%. and so the official dollar remained (which went from 330 to 800 dollars); followed by other very dramatic increases. Among these, the increase in petrol and fuel prices, which in a month is around 90%.
However, in 2023, the composition of the increases was this:
- Food and beveragesit was the item that recorded the greatest increase, with an increase of 256.5%.
- Recreationwith a cumulative increase of 238%.
- Education236%.
- Dress206%.
- Below 200%They are Health194.2%, e Transport and communications176.4%, e place of life129.2%.
As for which item has increased the most, the consultancy Eco Go warns that “food consumed inside and outside the home accumulates increases of 253.5 and 266.7 respectively in the last 12 months”. And he adds: “They leave a drag for the month of January of 12.9 percentage points.”
From the same item it emerges which products have obtained the greatest increases. At the top of the ranking is meat, with a cumulative increase of 335.9% over the year. Bakery products, cereals and pasta follow closely behind, with increases of 306.4%. Fruit is in third place, under 300%; drinks and infusions reached 255%; and vegetables lag behind, up nearly 227%.
Inflation: what do we expect for January?
Estimated inflation for January will not fall below 20%. For example, Abeceb, places the CPI for the first month of the year between 25 and 26%.
From Eco Go they calculate that with the statistical drag of 10% from December, plus the increases in prices of regulated services (transport, prepaid, communications), the data it will close between 22 and 23%.
In any case, it is assumed that December’s record will be the highest since the hyperinflation of 1990. “The consumer price index (CPI) showed a notable acceleration in December, rising from 12.7% in November to 24 .7% last month, this being the largest monthly change in the history of the index”, reads the latest Ecolatina report.
For its part, LCG estimates January inflation at 25%.
Source: Clarin
