They analyzed the soybean and corn margins for this campaign compared to 2023 and the results are surprising

The stock exchange analyzed the margins of soybean and corn production this January compared to the same month in 2023 and the results are surprising. “Margins were substantially better a year ago,” she summed up.

According to the study, last year prices on January 3 reflected the impact of the conflict between Ukraine and Russia. But, Due to the drought it was not possible to capitalize on the 2023 margins. A year ago all the early corn was lost and 30% of the potential yield of the late corn (considered the salvation of the countryside) was destroyed. Equally critical was high-grade soybeans, with 3 million hectares in fair to poor condition, and the obtainable yields were around 1,500 kilos.

Nowadays The reality of harvests is the opposite but the numbers are smaller. Soybeans in owned fields show a net profit of US$380 (with a yield of 4,000 kilos) compared to US$598 per hectare last season, or a difference of US$218 in favor of 2023. In rented fields, the difference is reduced to 57 US dollars.

In the case of first-class corn, The trend is the same as for oil seeds. In their fields, the net margin (for a productivity of 10,000 kilos) today is 479 dollars per hectare compared to 853 dollars a year ago. In the rented fields the difference is also in favor of last season with a margin of 244 dollars.

Will the climate be able to compensate for the decline in producer income compared to January 2023?

Taking into account the favorable climatic context for crop development during this campaign, two possible production scenarios have been designed: one medium and another with high potential for the region. The assessment of the entity’s marginality was carried out taking into account the same agronomic approach for these two hypothetical cases.

In corn, calculations show a margin improvement of more than $200 when yields go from 10,000 to 12,000 kilos (the trend is the same in both owned and leased fields). For soybeans, a yield improvement of 4,000 to 5,000 pounds leads to an increase in net income of $185 and $198 in the owned and leased fields, respectively.

According to the analysis of the size of the bag, Weather-driven 20% production increase in first-class corn would not offset average results assessed in January 2023. For own fields the margin would continue to be less than 163 and 40 dollars.

In the case of premium soybeans, even with a climate bonus and a 25% higher yield, in your field it would still be lower than January 23 at $33. Only in the case of rent is the situation reversed and it would end up generating an extra income of 141 dollars.