Peso debt started the week in the red, after rumors spread in recent days about a mega debt swap the government would negotiate with banks and other financial sector players. In a wheel marked by volatility and a renewed appetite for the dollar, national currency bonds They closed with declines of more than 7%.
Although it has been a wheel marked by uncertainty, while the Government fights politically to unblock the approval of the DNU and the Omnibus Law, and economically to obtain the support of the IMF, the decline in peso securities is significant after the intention by Luis Caputo by “exchange” all maturities scheduled for this year for three new instruments payable in the years 2025, 2026 and 2027.
Last week Caputo and his finance minister, Pablo Quirno, met with the banks to put the idea of the exchange on the table. According to the Bloomberg news agency, They would try to “kick” the 57 billion pesos that the National Treasury has to pay this year and thus clear the financial horizon and accelerate the consolidation of the fiscal plan.
This Monday it also emerged that, after the meeting with the banks, at the Palazzo del Tesoro They would have called the administrators of the mutual funds, as they are the main holders of public securities. consulted by ClarionEconomy sources said that “there is nothing planned”, although they did not deny negotiations with these players in the financial system.
Regarding the deal, PPI said: “It is notable that, according to our estimates, 41% of all potentially eligible debt is in private hands. Our first impression is quite optimistic, as the Treasury would benefit from high prices (in historical terms) in the middle and tail end of the peso curves, while offering the opportunity for long-term institutional investors to extend the duration (but not without offering some kind of attractive incentive).”
An operator consulted by Clarion It is not excluded that peso bonds will decline this Monday directly due to the idea of exchange. “Peso bonds collapsed from very high prices. This cannot be seen without considering the rebound of the gap: since peso bonds were expensive and liquidity was relatively cheap, “Investors have moved from CER debt to CCL”She said.
“A trade was something that could be expected this year. This is not in itself bad news for the market, quite the opposite. What is true, the announcement comes at a time when investors They were starting to see that the CCL was very cost-effective for the existing stock level“He added.
Source: Clarin
