The blue dollar rose another 45 pesos on Wednesday, closing at $1,225. By mid-morning it had reached $1,250, driven by demand from savers fleeing the peso amid escalating inflation and falling interest rates.
In nominal terms, without taking into account the effect of inflation, $1,225 represents a record. However, the current price in real terms It is 30% below the peak of $1,200 reached in October.
Despite this jump, blue has been relegated to second place among the most expensive alternative dollars. Leading this ranking is cash with liquid (CCL), the dollar used by businesses, which recorded a daily increase of 5.2%. So it was $1,276.
In the 12 wheels passed from 2024, the CCL rose by 31.2%. For its part, the MEP dollar, listed on the Buenos Aires Stock Exchange, gained 4.4% during the day. $1,215, with a jump of 22.1% in the month. With this advance, The CCL is only 65 pesos from the card dollar, what with $1,321 continues to serve as a ceiling for alternative dollars, including blue.
Why are alternative dollars soaring? There are many reasons. The first is that The market has less confidence in the government’s exchange rate strategy every day, which promises to keep the monthly adjustment of the official exchange rate at 2%. With inflation around 25%, this movement of creeping picket It seems poor and deepens the perception of backwardness. From Aurum Valores they calculate that the official dollar will arrive at the end of next month “at levels very similar to those prior to PASO 2019.”
Analysts point out that the December 13 devaluation brought the wholesale price to $800 “the value of the official dollar in real terms lost 100 dollars.”
This data reinforces the idea that the government will have to make a new adjustment in the value of the dollar in the medium term and this leads investors to validate the current prices of financial dollars.
Another reason is that as interest rates decline, meaning a fixed term today offers an 8% monthly return, It is no longer attractive to stay in pesos and this is why savers are looking for another refuge. And in the words of the PPI “There aren’t many other shelters in sight other than the buckCompared to December inflation, the rate shows a loss in real terms of 13%.
Furthermore, there are seasonal reasons that make the dollar take off and have to do with this fact The period of high demand for pesos has already ended relating to end-of-year expenses and the start of holidays. Therefore, those who have pesos available today instead of spending them prefer to go for the dollar, even more so if the expectation is that there may be a new devaluation in the medium term.
The political climate doesn’t help either. with Congressional questions to the Omnibus Act and Justice objections to the DNU potentially stopping the aggressive plan that President Javier Milei is trying to implement.
In this combination, the element that continues to work in its favor is that the supply of foreign currency by exporters continues, although it is slowing down. This allows the Central Bank to continue comparing dollars. In this wheel he was transported 208 million dollars and already packaged in 35 days 4.8 billion dollars.
Economist Christian Buteler pointed out that “the BCRA continues to buy dollars because the export sector continues to liquidate. 20% of these liquidations go to the CCL and serve as a supply to contain its price. In the early days of the government that lowered the CCL, but In the last 30 days it has risen by 34%, despite that offer.”
As the supply of dollars continues to flow, even if it is shrinking, the doubt remains when reactivation will be requested. In recent days the Government has expanded the authorizations for importers to access the Single Market and Free Trade (MULC). But this access is staggered and according to analysts It will start to show itself strongly only in ten days, therefore the Central would still have some wheels to continue accumulating purchases and recovering reserves.
Source: Clarin
