Next Wednesday, the 14th, the INDEC will publish data on inflation for January which, according to consultants, ranged between 20% and 23%. According to this data, the level remained below that of December (25.5%), with a slight deceleration in the third week of the month.
A first indication of what happened in the first month of the year comes from the data from the government of the City of Buenos Aires, which are usually in line with the consumer price index at the national level. In the Buenos Aires area the increase in January was 21.7%the highest since the beginning of the statistical series, in 2012. While the interannual variation of the index was equal to 238.5%.
From the EcoGo consultancy firm, economist Rocío Bisang points out that his inflation estimate for January is 21.2%. “In general it was a month very marked by the brake left by the increases in December. There were some sectors such as Healthcare where the increases in prepaid bills stood out or Transport, where theThe increases in petrol and trains and buses”.
For economist Lorenzo Sigaut Gravina, director of the consultancy firm Equilibra, “the preliminary data for January were lower than those for December. gave us 22.5%”, he commented when asked about his inflation forecast.
The fall in purchasing power, with wages lower than prices, acted as a brake on observations, leading to a slowdown in the pace of inflation in January. As a reflection Clariondemand fell in automobiles, shopping malls, supermarkets, gasoline and retail stores.
According to the study carried out by the consultancy firm Ferreres & Asociados of Orlando – based on over fifteen thousand prices of GBA goods and services – the inflation of January would end near 18% monthlyl with an interannual growth of 244.5%. “On the other hand, core inflation grew at a monthly rate of 19.5%”, underlined economist Fausto Spotorno, which marks an increase of 268.8% per year.
For the LIbertad y Progreso Foundation, the January increase is close to the limit 19.4% monthly. It therefore slowed down by 6.1 percentage points compared to the December data released by INDEC.
For its part, the first survey of market expectations (REM) of the year conducted by the Central Bank showed that the economists participating in this survey calculated a monthly inflation of 21.9% for January (-3.1 percentage points compared to the previous REM).Per For February they estimated monthly inflation of 18% and annual inflation of 227%.
This was noted in its survey on food products by the consultancy firm LCG, which estimates inflation of 23.1% for January. Higher price levels were recorded again in the first week of February. “The increase was 2.3 points over the previous week. The increase averaged 13.4% over the past four weeks and 10.3% point-to-point over the same period,” he said. noted in his latest report. According to this consultancy, dairy, meat and baked goods explain almost 90% of weekly inflation.
As for what will happen with inflation in February Among the consultants I agree on this will decrease compared to January, one month seasonally higher.
According to the economist of the Libertad Foundation, Lautaro Moschet “the January CPI is leaving a drag of 3.1 points for February, less than half that of December (6.8 percentage points). It is the lowest value since October. This, in turn, will favor the deceleration for the next month, which we expect, maintaining the current trend, We will be around 14%”, he risked.
Source: Clarin
