Due to the devaluation and sharp increase in the value of the basic basket, with the population’s income almost stagnant, in the first two months of Javier Milei’s administration there was an increase in levels of destitution and poverty.
This is estimated by the Social Observatory of the UCA (Argentine Catholic University). the population in poverty increased from 9.6% in the third quarter of 2023 to 14.2% in December 2023 and 15% in January 2024. And the level of poverty, went from 44.7% observed in the third quarter of 2023 49.5% in December and 57.4% in Januaryaccording to the report “Estimation of the effects of the post-devaluation inflationary impact. “December 2023 and January 2024 Scenario”.
57.4% is the the highest level of the series started in 2004, when it was at 54%.
Projected to the entire country there would be almost 27 million poor peopleof which 7 million would be destitute.
This is a given In February these social indicators could have fallen further as social security and pension benefits have remained unchanged compared to December and January, there has so far been no update to the minimum wage or unemployment benefit, there have been wage increases in very few unions and the decline in economic activity has is worsened, with a decline in employment levels. For its part, there have been increases in passenger transport fares and meat prices have increased again.
The UCA Report explains that poverty projections for December 2023 and January 2024 were carried out by adjusting labor and non-labour income for the third quarter of 2023 based on real changes in wages and changes in income and monetary transfer programs. In turn, the consumption baskets (CBA and CBT) were updated based on the change in values corresponding to their increase according to INDEC estimates”.
Considering only families receiving social assistance, the level of poverty in the third quarter of 2023 was 19.7% of people, in December it increased to 28.8% and in January it fell to 23.8%, as a consequence of compensatory policies, we read in the Report. For example the increase in the value of the AUH and the food card.
While, those who live in families that benefit from social policies They had a poverty level of 76.5% in the third quarter of 2023, 81.9% in December 2023 and 85.5% in January 2024.
In January, in the metropolitan region, the poverty basket for an adult was $193,146 and for a typical family of $596,823, without considering the rent.
The UCA Report highlights that “to evaluate the worsening of the social situation, two simulation exercises were carried out based on the adjustments applied to the microdata of the EDSA (Argentine Social Debt Survey) for the third quarter of 2023. The first recalculates the level of poverty and poverty in the situation of increasing baskets and updating labor and non-labor incomes for December 2023. The second of the exercises reproduces the situation of basket costs and labor and non-labor incomes of families in January 2024. “
Martín Rozados, director of the Master in Econometrics at the University of Tella, predicts poverty of 46.8% for January, equivalent to 21.8 million people nationwide. According to their estimates – which use a methodology based on INDEC microdata, unlike the UCA which projects based on its own survey – poverty increased from 38.5% in the third quarter of last year, to 46.3% in the fourth quarter of 2023 e to 46.8% in January.
The INDEC does not disseminate the quarterly data on indigence and poverty due to the alteration caused in the measurement by the collection of the half bonus, in the months of June and December. That’s why he releases those figures. every six months, taking into account the periods January-June and July-December.
The latest official data, corresponding to the first half of 2023, showed poverty of 40.1%. The situation in December will be announced on March 27th.
Source: Clarin
