In a campaign where better results are expected, producers are delaying sales of their harvest due to the country’s climate and economic situation.
According to the analysis of the Grassi brokerage, as of February 7 (latest official data) lOf the 52 million tons of soybeans, producers sold 5.6 million what is expected (11%). And only 700 thousand tons have a price.
On the same date of the previous cycle, farmers had sold 16% of their production, which amounted to only 21 million tonnes, due to the severe drought that had hit the countryside.
Going further back, still comparing the same period, 17% were sold in the 2021/22 cycle, 23% in 2020/21 and 28% in 2019/20.
The same thing happens in the case of corn. With a production projection of 56.5 million tonnes, producers sold 10.8 million tonnes (19%). And only 3 million of the expected total have a price.
Last year, at the same date, they had sold 22% of the 34 million tonnes collected, also affected by drought. In the 2021/22 campaign, producers had marketed 29%. In 2020/21, 32%; and in 2019/20, 35%.
Because producers don’t sell soybeans
There are several reasons that discourage producers from disposing of the goods and storing them in their fields.
“What was expected to be a more normalized cycle with respect to the pace of marketing – thanks to a better harvest in terms of volume and the prospects of clearer rules of the game – is starting to show a really noticeable delay“, he indicated Juan Manuel Uberti, brokerage grain analyst Fats.
As he explained, wheat prices in the available market They are affected by a preferential exchange rate for the export sector consisting of a mix of 80% of the official exchange rate plus 20% of a free exchange rate. AS, The “mixture” costs about $900. On the other hand, future contracts (called forward) which serve to conclude deals on the goods of the new harvest they are settled at the official wholesale dollarwhich today trades at $832. There is an expectation that the exporting dollar will begin to be used for futures contracts.
“Uncertainty regarding the duration of this regime or its modification or elimination represents the main disincentive to agreeing sales. Furthermore, one could hypothesize with a new devaluation of the official exchange rate, taking into account the delay in the real exchange rate due to the advance of inflation in recent months”, he added.
Moreover, Catalina Ferrarimarket analyst Piano+he added that it is also given by decline in future prices of soybeans and corn. Soybeans on May 24 reached a price of $275, while in November the average was $340. oil price,” he added.
The same thing happened in corn. The -24 April position is trading around US$175, while in November it was trading near US$200.
Another reason was the heat wave, which created uncertainty in this regard the possible loss of performance estimated when the remainder of the available campaign is minimal.
Despite the rainfall between 7 and 14 February, which almost equaled that accumulated during the month in the region, the damage to soybeans is irreversible. According to the Rosario Stock Exchange (BCR), the losses would amount to 20-30% of the yield potential of the oil seeds planted at the first appointment in the central area.
Source: Clarin
