This Friday there will be another increase in petrol and diesel prices across the countryon the occasion of expected increase in internal fuel taxes. The impact on prices will be 3.9% ceiling in the city of Buenos Airessince it is the place where the cheapest values are found (with the exception of Patagonia, where the tax is not paid).
However, on March 1, oil companies may take the opportunity to add the devaluation of the peso against the dollar (2% monthly) and transfer the recent increases of biofuels. And the refiners are waiting for the moment to make up for the “delay” they claim to have compared to “parity”.
According to qualified industry sources, Super petrol should be between 1.20 and 1.23 dollars per litre. With current values in the City of $744 in YPF or just under $0.90 US, the gap is more than 33%. An important anchor, in this sense, is the depth of the decline in economic activity this summer. Fuel sales at gas stations fell 5.8% year-over-year in Januarya product with double-digit drops for all brands except YPF, which continues to devour the rest of the market with prices between 3% and 5% lower.
Recession moderates inflation
According to what was stated by the refinery managers, the Minister of Economy, At the end of January Luis Caputo asked companies to moderate the pace of increasesin order to show steadily declining inflation. Between the October elections and February 1, fuel prices increased between 175% and 200%with a crisis of deficiency in the middle.
The increase in petrol and diesel is part of a monthly program in which taxes, which had not been updated since October 2022, were partially released. The increases will continue up to and including June. This time, as reported by Economía at the beginning of February, the gross increase will be 32.89 dollars per liter of petrol and 31.64 dollars for diesel; but since both products are blended with biofuels – which are exempt – the net impact will be $28.94 and $29.27 respectively, according to tables published by the Agency. Federal Public Revenue Administration (AFIP).
In April there will be another gross adjustment (without the biofuel discount) of $34 and in May of $70, corresponding to the tax inflation update, which is now expected to apply in March. Finally, in June the plan should be finalized with the carryover of inflation from the first quarter of this year.
A report from Argentine Confederation of Workers and Employees of Hydrocarbons, Energy, Fuels, Derivatives and Related Products (CATHEDA) estimated that the collection of fuel taxes would go from 526,000 million dollars in 2023 to more than $3.8 billion this yearwhich would add the equivalent of about 0.5 percentage points to gross domestic product (GDP) or the 10% of the fiscal adjustment proposed by Javier Milei’s government.
SN
Source: Clarin
