The lowering of Blue dollar It is held in the first week of March. This Wednesday we take a step back and negotiate $1,010, just five pesos above the price at the beginning of the year. In a market where the ticket has more supply than demand, the days in late January when the informal market reached the $1,250,
The decline of the blue dollar, which remained virtually flat while inflation jumped by more than 35% in the first two months, is linked to the loss of purchasing power. In this context in which salary increases are slow, many Argentines They are forced to sell the “junction” of dollars they had saved to be able to cope with the increase in prices.
This leads to an abundance of sellers and a lack of buyers in the city of Buenos Aires and the neighborhood caves. In fact, those who sell their tickets will find the purchase prices $980.
The lack of demand extends to financial dollars, which are also declining. In the case of cash with liquidity it drops by 1.6%, $1,048, and the MEP drops by 1.2%. $1017.
In this case the decline also responds to an imbalance between supply and demand. With the launch of BOPREAL, the bonus for importers, some of the demand went to those securities rather than financial dollars.
Furthermore, there are still restrictions on importers’ access to the Single Market and Free Trade (MULC), as the government authorizes these quota transactions.
Added to this is that thanks to the dollar blend for exporters, which allows 80% to be liquidated in official dollars – today at 844 dollars – and the other 20% in cash with liquids, the entry into foreign currency has been supported , which allowed IL Central bank acquire 8.8 billion dollars since last December.
“Aside from the fact that the positive balance of the BCRA widens, and therefore currencies continue to recover, traders continue to pay attention to the real exchange rate as The inflation rate is well below the inflation level could cause the improvement in competitiveness resulting from last December’s devaluation to evaporate in the coming months,” said economist Gustavo Ber.
The lingering doubt in the market is whether the monthly reset of the 2% exchange rate will be sustained throughout this month or will it be accelerated so as to the dollar closes the gap with inflation. Despite this uncertainty, for now the idea that there will not be a sudden leap seems to prevail.
Today the exchange rate gap, which in October reached 180%, in the case of blue it has been reduced to 20%, while in the case of cash it is 24%.
The gap at these levels gives the government the ability to anticipate that the end of the exchange rate is near. In fact, the president Javier Milei he underlined it “Inflation in February will be around 15% and stocks would be raised mid-year if all goes well.”
“However, financial dollars continue to deflate a gap already close to 20%a level that raises expectations about a future unification of exchange rates, perhaps after the liquidation of the crop, to continue strengthening the balance of the BCRA at that stage,” Ber underlined.
Source: Clarin
