Javier Milei’s promise to exit stocks in the near future has renewed expectations in the private sector. The economic team heard this in the meetings and contacts which has maintained in recent weeks with different sectors, all interested in being the first to benefit from any flexibility of currency and financial restrictions.
One such informal exchange took place last week, when the exporters They asked about the possibility of easing capital controls and the economic authorities replied that “for now there will be no changes”. A less optimistic definition than the one outlined by the President on Friday at Congress and ratified on Tuesday at ExpoAgro.
“The idea is to get it back up as soon as possible“As soon as we finish fixing the Central Bank imbalance, we will fix it,” which may happen half a yearMilei said after giving a speech at the company fair. This opening, which is also being discussed with the Monetary Fund, is currently fueling all types of speculation.
In the case of cerealsone of the main ones foreign exchange providersthey believe that these types of announcements by the head of state generate expectations of “improvements” in the exchange rate and They paralyze sales of grain for export. “So I hope they do it soon because otherwise it will be difficult to operate the ports and milling factories without grains,” an industry source said.
Inside the Ministry of Economy they are surprised by the recent increase in dollar securities, the reduction of the exchange rate gap to 20% and the purchase of reserves worth 8.7 billion dollars after the change of management. The improvement of the financial scenario, supported by the strong liquefaction of the peso and dollar debt to importers opens a window to start releasing flows.
“When the harvest arrives we will evaluate the conditions and see if we will start to touch the supplies“, officials say in private meetings. The deadline is April/May, when exporters will begin to liquidate part of the 31,000 million dollars sales expected from the Rosario Stock Exchange for 2024. Luis Caputo’s order to your team is move “carefully”.
The Government is committed to calibrating the rigorous fiscal adjustment and the liquefaction of income, which induces a slowdown in inflation, with a recovery of the economy in the second half of the year AND the flexibility of actions, which in turn should lead to aa unification of the exchange rate. An entire clockwork mechanism to which he is still exposed risks important.
Net reserves remain negative and the BCRA maintains the devaluation rate of 2% monthly while inflation is around 15% monthly, which the official dollar appreciated. In other words, Today’s $800 December is equivalent to $536. For Domingo Cavallo, the decline in inflation is an opportunity to accelerate the dollar and avoid a new devaluation, but Caputo has not yet given any signs of wanting to follow this path.
“Without exports showing a significant recovery – export clearance does not take off and improves only marginally – the BCRA takes advantage of the decline in imports due to the recession and the payment in four installments to be made for new purchases from abroad. This is what which gives you a great opportunity to buy foreign exchange and recover reserves,” he said. Martino PoloCohen’s chief strategist.
Meeting with the funds
The opening of shares was also on the table in the meeting held at the end of February by the Chamber of Mutual Funds (FCI) with the National Securities Commission (CNV). “It was a protocol meeting, the Chamber consulted on the exit from the restrictions and was told that this had been decided by the Ministry of Economy and the Central Bank,” official sources said.
Now, Funds and banks are looking for Caputo to unblock stock market operations and only then the foreign exchange market for exporters, importers and businesses. The idea is to repeal a dozen regulations, such as the limitation on holding foreign currency deposits in the FCI’s wallet and the limit on trading $200,000 on the stock exchange in one day, without prior information to the CNV.
He Tourism is another sector calling for the turnstiles to be loosened. A major company has asked the government to allow payment for tickets in dollars. Today, trips abroad are paid in pesos by card at the tourist exchange rate ($1,382), but some agencies accept payment in dollars, which implies savings of 25% to the value of the MEP or blue ($1,010) and less collection of COUNTRY and profits tax.
Source: Clarin
