THE electricity, gas and public transport (trains and buses) tariffs, together with the price of fuel and prepaid installments, will add around 11.5 percentage points to inflation of the March-May quarter, according to the consultancy firm’s estimates EcoGo.
Between 18% and 30% of inflation in the first five months of the year could be explained by the impact of these regulated prices, predicts the entity led by Marina Dal Poggetto and Sebastián Menescaldi.
The price change would slow down slightly and reach 101% by the end of May. In this sense, the correction of regulated prices The general level of change in the consumer price index (CPI) would have more than doubled: 210% in 5 months, with an incidence in percentage points of 19.7 percentage points.
Incidence of tariffs, fuel and prepaid cards on inflation, according to EcoGo.The calculations are based on adjustments already known in the electricity and public transport sectors, but also on estimates of the evolution of petrol, diesel, prepaid cards and on a very important data that has not yet been revealed: how much and how will the increase in gas be.
If the Government proceeded with a recomposition of tariffs so that they reflect the real costs of the offer, gas would have a cumulative increase in May of 743% compared to December; light, 367%; transportation, 401%; fuels, 86%; and prepaid, 174%.
In March alone, general inflation would fall from 15.9% in February to 15.6%, while regulated prices would go from a contribution of 3.4 percentage points to 4.4 pp, according to the latest projection update by EcoGo. However, since the gas increase was postponed to April, at least 1.5 points of inflation would be postponed until later.
Since 2019, regulated prices have grown well below seasonal prices and core inflation. In this first part of the year the trend is towards break-even, through strong cuts in subsidies.
As revealed by International Monetary Fund (IMF) In his January mission, during the government of Alberto Fernández, the change in prices of clothing, restaurants and hotels, food and soft drinks and entertainment was higher than general inflation, while alcohol prices lagged behind. , tobacco, healthcare, transport, education, communications and electricity and gas services.
SN
Source: Clarin
