The decline in interest rates and the inflationary slowdown that occurred in March they were not enough to reverse the downward trend in credit to the private sector experience for 19 consecutive months. In the third month of the year, bank loans to families and businesses were significantly reduced, a symptom of the economic recession that Argentina is experiencing.
Central Bank data reveal a new contraction in demand for bank loans compared to what was observed in February. For starters, credit card financing and personal loan placement, it grew less than inflation last month designed by most City consultancy firms.
So, while INDEC is estimated to publish a CPI for March of between 10% and 13% next Friday, Paper usage increased by approximately 5.1% last month. Interannual growth reached 166.9%, also placing it below the inflation levels estimated for the year, consequently showing a decrease in real terms in both analyses.
Plastic remains the most used source of financing by families. The decline in its use corresponds to the collapse in consumption recorded in recent months. However, economist Guillermo Barbero, of First Capital Markets, clarified: “In this particular case, we must highlight that the last days of the month are holidays and also coincide with a period during which plastic money is traditionally used with greater frequency and which could postpone the calculation of operations to the following month, so the analysis of the variations could give rise to less precise interpretations.
He The use of cards to finance consumption in dollars also collapsed in March. The so-called “paper dollar,” now at $1,410, has become the most expensive price on the market for U.S. currency, which is why Argentines shopping abroad have stopped choosing paper as a form of payment.
For their part, despite the fact that after the reduction in economic rates that the Central Bank had to face last month, some banks reduced the cost of their creditsPersonal loans also saw another month of decline in March. The stock of these lines increased by 8.1% in nominal terms and a decline of more than 100% in real terms compared to what was recorded a year ago. “Expectations of layoffs and suspensions in the short term do not allow demand to take off. Family projects that require debt are relegated to the months to come,” added Barbero.
In March, the total balance of peso loans to the private sector reached the level of 20.1 billion dollars, with an increase in the last 365 days of 12 billion dollars, equal to 145.7% per year, values which They are lower than inflation for the period, estimated at around 290%.
Source: Clarin
